MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.
The octagon returns to the United Arab Emirates for a fight card that will be featured on ABC. The headliner is a bantamweight title eliminator between undefeated Dagestani Umar Nurmagomedov and battle-tested veteran Cory Sandhagen. The card has action fights from top to bottom, but we will begin our analysis with the first fight on the main card, a sensational lightweight tilt pitting Brazilian underdog Elves Brener against prolific finisher Joel Alvarez.
Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown for UFC Fight Night – Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Joel Alvarez $8,300 vs. Elves Brener $7,900
Fight Odds: -176 Alvarez vs. +148 Brener
Weight Class: 155lb. (Lightweight)
Joel Alvarez is one of the biggest lightweights on the roster, but he seemed to make weight without issue for this contest. He presents a variety of dangerous tools, from knees and elbows in the clinch to long distance kicks and opportunistic submissions.
Elves Brener is a Brazilian war horse who burst on the scene in the UFC with a three fight winning streak including two wins as a massive underdog against Zubaira Tukhugov (SDEC) and Guram Kutateladze (TKO3). Brener was finally turned away by Myktybek Orolbai in his last contest, but he offered plenty of resistance against a tough fighter, and Orolbai was deducted a point for grabbing the fence to prevent a Brener takedown in round three.
Alvarez is the more polished and dangerous fighter early, but he has shown a willingness to flop to his back to look for submissions instead of defending takedowns rigorously, and that could cost him against an aggressive fighter in Brener who is willing to pursue takedowns and pass the guard. Arman Tsarukyan and Marc Diakiese had plenty of success taking Alvarez down, and Brener should have the jiu jitsu fundamentals to defend any guillotines or guard subs.
Alvarez has produced a lot of fantastic UFC wins, but most of his previous opponents have since retired from fighting, or at the very least, they’re no longer with the promotion. Meanwhile, Elves Brener has been over-performing expectations, staying supremely active, and fighting like a dog until the final bell every time out. His willingness to take damage, engage in fire fights, and scramble frantically will eventually lead to him getting finished, but I think he has the heart and the tools to outlast Alvarez and finish late or grit out a narrow decision.
Prediction: Elves Brener defeats Joel Alvarez via TKO3/SDEC
MacKenzie Dern $8,200 vs. Lupita Godinez $8,000
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About the Author
Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights