MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Sterling vs. Zalal

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2026-04-24 01:03:12 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal.

The UFC is gearing up for big blockbuster events this summer, and that means we have to trudge through some thinner fight night cards in the lead up. This card thematically pits younger fighters against veterans who are defending their roster spots. Many of the matchups will have a fighter with a skill and experience discrepancy against a younger, bigger, more durable opponent. Overall, the card should have fun and entertaining fights despite the lack of overt star power, and that is true from the first women’s prelim until the main event of the evening.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal – MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown

Julia Polastri ($9,000) vs. Talita Alencar ($7,200)

Fight Odds: -295 Polastri vs. +220 Alencar
Weight Class: W115lb. (Women’s Strawweight)

Julia Polastri (2-2 UFC) has one of the most exciting styles to watch in WMMA today. She has a highly impressive 8-0 record in fights that end inside the distance, including 5 wins via KO/TKO and 3 wins via submission. Her “Psycho” nickname fits her high pace and aggressive approach inside the octagon. At 28, the sky is the limit for Polastri. Her striking output (6.4 strikes landed per minute) is above average, her toughness is undeniable, she has 19 professional fights under her belt, and she seems to have found her proper weight class at strawweight. The downside with Polastri is she has mediocre takedown defense, her guard can be passed, and she can give up concerning positions on the mat.

Talita Alencar (3-1 UFC) is a 35-year-old “prospect” who is in a win-now situation if she wants to vault herself into title contention. “The Problem Child” is a multiple-time Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt world champion who is averaging 3 takedowns per 15 minutes in her UFC/DWCS sample. She understands where she wins fights, so she tries to consistently put herself in the top position, and when she does, she tends to control the rest of the round, imposing ground and pound and advancing position. In her last fight against Ariane Carnelossi (3-3 UFC), it was Alencar who outlasted her opponent and threatened with the submission in round 2 before securing the tap in the final frame. Alencar got married in March, and she seems to have split her camp between her home base in Florida and P4P Muay Thai in Denver, Colorado (at elevation). Alencar’s biggest problem has always been her striking, her diminutive size, and her inability to fight hard for 15 minutes.

I have to favor Polastri in this fight because the number one judging criteria is damage, and Polastri is the more damaging fighter with more proven cardio. That being said, the line feels very wide considering the binary nature of the contest. Polastri has never submitted a quality opponent, and she has never faced a grappler on the level of Alencar. She gave up 4 takedowns against Jasudavicius (albeit at 125lb.), 5 takedowns against Godinez (9-6 UFC), and a takedown against Cory McKenna (3-3 UFC). Meanwhile, Alencar is a fighter who struggles with high-pace fights and was nearly finished by Stephanie Luciano (only a 30% finish rate in 10 pro-am wins). Both of these women have a clear path to victory.

Prediction: Julia Polastri via KO2/3/SDEC or Talita Alencar via SUB1/2/SDEC

Victor Valenzuela ($8,600) vs. Max Griffin ($7,600)

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