MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Tybura vs. Spivac 2

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2024-08-10 17:29:10 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The UFC is back for another Saturday night offering at the Apex Center built for hardcore fight fans and gamblers. While the card lacks star power and high stakes matchups, it does offer compelling stylistic clashes, reasonably competitive betting odds, and a pair of bookended rematches in the main event and the first fight of the night. Let’s begin by breaking down the main card action, starting with the only women’s action on the main card.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown for UFC Fight Night – Tybura vs. Spivac 2

Yana Santos $8,400 vs. Chelsea Chandler $7,800

Fight Odds: -150 Santos vs. +122 Chandler
Weight Class: 135lb. (Women’s Bantamweight)

Yana Santos has had the longest layoff of any fighter on the card at over one year (last fought July of 2023), but if her social media is any indication, she looks to be in phenomenal physical condition for this fight. Unfortunately for her, her opponent was unwilling or unable to make the weight like a professional, so she was forced to accept a fine and a catchweight contract of 141 pounds. Missing weight is one thing, but it is rare to see such a blatant weight miss from an athlete in Chandler who is already on thin ice having missed weight for the last bout.

Santos has fought for the UFC 9 times, and she makes her 10th walk against a relative newcomer, who has had just 3 fights inside the promotion. Santos debuted in a UFC pay-per-view main event setting against Cris Cyborg because she was the Invicta bantamweight champion, and Cyborg needed any willing party to sign to fight her at the time.

Chandler made her debut in October of 2022, making her a much more recent addition to the roster. Since arriving, her quality of competition has been relatively meager, and despite this fact, she has been an underdog in all three fights. With the notable exception of Norma Dumont (7-2 UFC), who defeated Chandler in a one-sided fight, none of Chandler’s UFC opposition has proven themselves to be UFC level, with Nunes having a tragic ground game and Stoliarenko having a putrid 2-6 record in the organization (also lost to Yana Santos) and horrific cardio.

If Santos can show the same form against Chandler as she did against Karol Rosa in her most recent split decision loss, she should have the volume, experience, and coaching edges. Ultimately I favor her to get the job done because she is the better prepared athlete, she trains with the better gym, Chandler has shown an unwillingness to pursue the easiest path to victory, and Santos likely needs a win to continue her UFC career.

The biggest red flags on the Santos side are her three-fight losing skid (no momentum), her size disadvantage as a result of Chandler’s cheating (weight miss), and her 5 losses inside the distance compared to no losses inside the distance for Chandler. This is still an extremely volatile WMMA fight, and either woman getting taken down could lead to them flaking on bottom.

Prediction: Yana Santos defeats Chelsea Chandler via DEC