MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.
The UFC octagon is touching down for the very first time in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for an event that has been rocked by short-notice changes, including the main event. Khamzat Chimaev was the building block for this card opposite former UFC middleweight champion Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker before an illness forced Chimaev to pull out from the bout on late notice. Scrambling, the UFC offered the main event to Ikram Aliskerov, a highly regarded middleweight prospect who has only tasted defeat as a professional against the man whom he replaces in this main event (Chimaev). The man who Aliskerov was preparing to fight last week before accepting this main event — Antonio Trocoli — was also re-booked against Shara “The Bullet” Magomedov, after his original opponent (Joilton Lutterbach) tested positive for a banned substance.
The makeshift card will go forward with 1 fights beginning at 12:00 PM ET. Let’s start with the first bout, the Road to the UFC Bantamweight Finals between Xiao Long and ChangHo Lee.
Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings.
MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown for UFC Fight Night – Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Xiao Long $8,300 vs. ChangHo Lee $7,900
Fight Odds: -108 Xiao vs. -114 Lee
Weight Class: 135lb. (Bantamweight)
Xiao Long fought on the Dana White Tuesday Night Contender Series in October of 2021, falling short against Cristian Quinonez via unanimous decision. Since that night, he has rattled off 4 professional victories, including 2 important, competitive wins on the Road To UFC to earn his spot in the finals.
His opponent, ChangHo Lee, is much less experienced in professional mixed martial arts (10 fights vs. 34 fights), and he has fought a lower quality of competition overall. When Lee has stepped up in competition, he struggled to win rounds and positions in the grappling phase, which is supposed to be his best position. Physically, I am not impressed with Lee as an athlete, and he tends to rely on his conditioning and willingness to take damage to rally later in contests when his opponent slows down.
Even when Long was getting dropped and soundly beaten on the feet by Quinonez, he refused to wave the white flag or concede a finish. He showed improved takedown defense and scrambling on the Road To UFC, and he attempts and lands strikes at a higher clip when standing, so I expect him to win this fight wherever it takes place. Lee will need takedowns to win the fight, and I don’t see him getting them. Despite the fact Lee has never been finished, I think he could be overwhelmed by the moment and his younger opponent en route to a finish loss.
Prediction: Xiao Long defeats ChangHo Lee via stoppage in Rd. 1/2
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov $9,300 vs. Brendson Ribeiro $6,900
Fight Odds: -340 Gadzhiyasulov vs. +270 Ribeiro
Weight Class: 205lb. (Light Heavyweight)
This content can help you make better MMA DFS picks
- To access this content, subscribe to MMA Premium or purchase a 3-day trial.
- An MMA subscription will allow you to access this content and much more!
About the Author
Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights