MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Freedom 250 - Topuria vs. Gaethje

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2026-06-13 01:54:41 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Freedom 250 – Topuria vs. Gaethje.

At a normal UFC event, we are accustomed to 12 or more fights in a climate-controlled indoor setting on a Saturday night. This weekend, we will experience something together for the first time. The United States capital, and more specifically, The White House, will serve as a unique backdrop for 7 premiere fights meant to honor the 250th anniversary of America. The event itself will be a smaller and more exclusive crowd than we are used to, but the energy level is expected to be off the charts with an 85,000-person watch party set for The Ellipse. This event has an undeniable big fight feel, and we may never see something like this again. It is also worth noting that this fight card could be subject to increased volatility because of the heat, the humidity, and the pressure of the biggest, brightest lights in the history of the sport. On Sunday, we will see history made, perhaps in more ways than one. Appropriately, we begin with one of the trickiest and most closely lined fights on the card between all-action featherweights.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

UFC Freedom 250 – Topuria vs. Gaethje: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown

Diego Lopes ($12,600 CPT; $8,400) vs. Steve Garcia ($9,900 CPT; $6,600)

Fight Odds: -170 Lopes vs. +132 Garcia
Weight Class: 145lb. (Featherweight)

This matchup between Diego Lopes (6-3 UFC) and Steve Garcia (8-2 UFC) is an incredibly tricky one to break down. This is reflected by the bout having the 2nd-closest betting odds on the slate. Both men have undeniable on-paper advantages heading into this contest. Lopes is ranked higher, the bigger star, and has twice fought for the UFC title. Broadly speaking, Lopes has fought the higher quality of competition, and his losses against Alexander Volkanovski (15-3 UFC) and Movsar Evloev (10-0 UFC) are more understandable than some of the losses Garcia suffered early in his UFC career (such as against 4-2 Pena and 2-4 Maheshate). Lopes also has the superior grappling pedigree, the more lethal submission game, and a clear edge in durability, having absorbed 0 UFC knockdowns compared to 5 for Garcia.

What makes Steve Garcia a live underdog in this matchup is his relative striking efficiency (+3.27 strike differential vs. -0.73 for Lopes), his superior striking defense (59% vs. 47%), his stalwart 88% takedown defense rate, and his unique ability to hurt his opponents (9 UFC KDs). Garcia is also an American fighter taking on a foreign national at a uniquely patriotic “UFC Freedom 250” card, so Garcia is likely to get more vocal support than he is used to receiving. The downside risk for Garcia in this matchup is that he is taking his first genuine step up in competition against a well-rounded fighter. Garcia showed he can be a stingy defensive grappler in the Melquizael Costa (6-3 UFC) fight, but his propensity for giving up his back in scrambles could be his undoing against a smooth operator on the mat like Lopes. Lopes has been credited with 11 submission attempts since DWCS, and he has spent his training camp working on his wrestling with the world-class Oklahoma State University Men’s Wrestling Team.

When I look at this fight, I see three ways that it can play out. If pressed, I would lean toward Lopes inside the distance because Garcia can be dropped, he may be outclassed in the grappling, and Lopes has a remarkable 85% finish rate in 27 professional victories with a 23-2 record in fights that end inside the distance. With that being said, I view this fight as closer to a coin flip than the plus-money tag on Garcia would indicate. Oddsmakers are slightly favoring Garcia in the “KO Only” market, and I would personally make him a favorite in a “DEC Only” market because he is much more likely to get ahead on the strike count. This should be all action for as long as it lasts, but it is one of the most volatile matchups on the card.

Prediction: Diego Lopes via SUB, Steve Garcia via DEC, or Either Man via KO

Bo Nickal ($13,200 CPT; $8,800) vs. Kyle Daukaus ($9,300 CPT; $6,200)

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