MMA DFS Expert Survey: UFC 302 - Makhachev vs. Poirier
Our panel of experts is here to give you their MMA DFS advice for this week’s contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Squirrelpatrol’s favorite value play? Or h3budda’s top fighter for tournaments? Find out below!
MMA DFS Picks: DraftKings Expert Survey for UFC 302 – Makhachev vs. Poirier
What is your strategy in tournaments for the two 5-round fights?
eys819: I will be slightly underweight on Makhachev and slightly overweight on Strickland among the two favorites. I think Strickland has more upside due to his heavy volume and the chances the fight lasts all five rounds. The discount from Makhachev to Strickland is also useful. Costa will be my biggest underweight stance among the four fighters, as I expect Strickland to take care of business. I will spread my exposure among the other underdogs in hopes of finding a winner. I expect to play Poirier even with the field, as he will likely be needed in any win due to his cheap salary.
Moneyball16: On most slates, I would like Makhachev at his ownership fine, but on this slate, I am going to be underweight. He is so expensive, and there are so many other good pay-up options with every fighter $8,600 and higher at least a 2-1 favorite. I don’t really like Poirier either. Despite the 5 rounds to theoretically work with, I think it’s best to treat him as a fighter with a true puncher’s chance who probably won’t take advantage of the extra rounds against someone as dominant as Makhachev. For the other 5-round fight, I like Strickland more than sportsbooks do and think he will fight at a strong pace versus Costa’s mediocre striking defense, so I will be overweight on Strickland and underweight on Costa.
h3budda: With a smaller slate (only 12 fights) people will prioritize slamming a piece of both into their lineups. Avoiding some of the ownership could be the best plan of action. It is very scary because you would be fading a nice floor of 5 rounds to work with. I see a world where both favorites win in the 4th or 5th round or a decision and somehow don’t hit optimal. I’d more likely play a double dog lineup to get salary relief and avoid common builds.
squirrelpatrol: It’s a scary fade, but I’ll likely be under the field on a highly-owned Makhachev, playing Strickland in his place and using the savings elsewhere in my lineups. Makhachev has such a good chance to win inside the distance that the extra rounds may not benefit him, and he’s a good scorer but not a great one. I’ll aim to be over the field on Poirier if his ownership is in the single-digits in the large multi-entry contests.
Bward586: I have some light interest in stacking the co-main event. It has a reasonable chance of going all five rounds, and both fighters score well on a per-minute basis thanks to high significant strikes rates. If no big underdogs pull an upset, Costa could end up in the optimal even in a loss. With the main event, I’ll be picking between the two fighters. Poirier is essentially knockout or bust, which would mean a low score for Makhachev. On the other hand, Makhachev’s likely win involves keeping Poirier on the mat the whole time, which would be a low score for Poirier