MMA DFS Expert Survey: UFC 303 - Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Our panel of experts is here to give you their MMA DFS advice for this week’s contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Squirrelpatrol’s favorite value play? Or h3budda’s top fighter for tournaments? Find out below!
MMA DFS Picks: DraftKings Expert Survey for UFC 303 – Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
How are you handling Payton Talbott and his $9,800 salary? Is there an pOWN% level below which you’d consider him?
eys819: The moneyline and inside the distance odds are great, but he is only +220-ish to finish in the first round. I am not sure he can pay off a salary that is $500 above any other fighter on the card without a first-round finish. I will most likely end up well underweight his pOWN% if it stays 30% or more.
Moneyball16: For a historically high salary on a fighter, you would expect more upside here, but from what we have seen, the upside is only run of the mill for Talbott. He has never had a 1st round win in the UFC, in lesser promotions, or even as an amateur. On top of that, he has 0 takedowns in his 2 UFC fights and his 1 Contender Series fight. On top of that, I tend to focus more on mid-priced fighters than most, so Talbott is going to be mostly a fade.
h3budda: This salary is a slippery slope. He is a dominant fighter who has been racking up 2nd round finishes. Style of fighting matters, and he lacks pure grappling upside in most spots. The pace could be tactical, which would mean slower scoring. There are more ways I think he does NOT get there than he does. This is a tricky one because of the fact you can very much get to Talbott on this slate due to the value plays. Matching the field 1 in 3 lineups could be the move (if not just passing altogether).
squirrelpatrol: I’ll likely be under the current pOWN% of around 32%, but I won’t fade Talbott completely. The salary is the highest I’ve seen, and it sticks out that he is so much more expensive than the other fighters on the slate. There are enough viable underdogs to fit Talbott into lineups, however. I’ll likely look to avoid using highly-owned value plays like Chiasson in combination with Talbott, but I won’t avoid him entirely.
Bward586: I can’t remember another event where one fighter is $500 more expensive than the rest of the field. While he’s not typically a super-quick finisher, this is a big step down in competition for Talbott after fighting Cameron Saaiman. He scored 113 points against Saaiman, which might be enough to sneak into the optimal at his salary depending on how the other fights go. I’ll probably be about even with the field at his current ownership projection in the low 30% range on the chance those projections prove optimistic.
What are your thoughts about stacking the 5-round fight in cash games?
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About the Author
Robert Brown (aka Epignosis) was having lunch at a sports bar. A football game was on. He remarked to his wife that if he could have a second life, he’d like to be someone who enjoyed watching sports. That enjoyment began when he signed up for a fantasy football league that needed one more player. Since then, he has enjoyed playing NFL, NBA, and (especially) MLB DFS. When not teaching American literature, editing content for RotoGrinders (which he has done since 2019), or making lineups, Epignosis is rocking out or jazzing it up on one of several possible instruments.