MMA DFS Expert Survey: UFC 304 - Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Our panel of experts is here to give you their MMA DFS advice for this week’s contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Squirrelpatrol’s favorite value play? Or h3budda’s top fighter for tournaments? Find out below!
MMA DFS Picks: DraftKings Expert Survey for UFC 304 – Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
What are your thoughts about stacking the 5-round fight in cash games?
eys819: I will be stacking the Edwards/Muhammad fight, as it is a strong favorite to last the full 5 rounds. Both fighters should be able to accumulate enough points with the extra time to provide a solid floor for cash games. In the heavyweight 5-rounder, I think you just take Aspinall, as he is near even money to win in the first round. Blaydes would score quite poorly if Aspinall is able to get the early finish.
Moneyball16: Both 5-rounders are quite mediocre cash stacks this week. Edwards/Muhammad should go the full 5 rounds at a strong rate over 60% of the time, but both of these fighters have a long history of rather uneventful DFS pace. Aspinall/Blaydes has very poor odds to go 25 minutes (+650), and whoever loses this match should put up a low score either from Aspinall winning early or Blaydes dominating on the mat. Overall, all 4 players are fine cash plays, and I would play them, but I wouldn’t lock any of them in.
h3budda: There are two five round fights to play with on this slate. I think the main event Edwards/Muhammad is a solid stack option at -165 to go to a decision. You should be locking in a nice number of significant strikes over that fight. Aspinall/Blaydes is a fight where you probably take Aspinall and move on based on early finish metrics (-350 ITD). The deeper the fight goes, the more I think Blaydes becomes fantasy relevant.
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SquirrelPatrol: I’ll likely stack the Edwards/Muhammad fight. Edwards has strong win odds for his price, while Muhammad has a strong floor with the fight likely to go five rounds. The Aspinall/Blaydes fight is excellent for tournaments, but the losing fighter could have a very low floor, so I won’t stack it for cash.
Bward586: I plan on stacking the welterweight title fight between Edwards and Muhammad. With solid odds to go all 25 minutes, the loser should have a reasonably solid floor. While neither fighter is elite on a per-minute basis, over 25 minutes, they should score enough to justify their (combined) salaries. In the co-main event, I’m confident enough in an early Aspinall win to play him alone.
Which fight are you most likely to avoid and why?
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About the Author
Robert Brown (aka Epignosis) was having lunch at a sports bar. A football game was on. He remarked to his wife that if he could have a second life, he’d like to be someone who enjoyed watching sports. That enjoyment began when he signed up for a fantasy football league that needed one more player. Since then, he has enjoyed playing NFL, NBA, and (especially) MLB DFS. When not teaching American literature, editing content for RotoGrinders (which he has done since 2019), or making lineups, Epignosis is rocking out or jazzing it up on one of several possible instruments.