MMA DFS Expert Survey: UFC 309 - Jones vs. Miocic
Our panel of experts is here to give you their MMA DFS advice for this week’s contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Billy Ward’s favorite value play? Or h3budda’s top fighter for tournaments? Find out below!
MMA DFS Picks: DraftKings Expert Survey for UFC 309 – Jones vs. Miocic
Who is your favorite fighter to spend up for in cash games?
h3budda: Nickal
Moneyball16: Nickal
Bward586: Jones
LiamPicksFights: Jones
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What are your thoughts about stacking the 5-round fights in cash games?
h3budda: The context of this slate is very unique for cash games. There are a few underdogs you can justify as locks because they have slight money line value and better ITD odds than their opponents. You will likely just want to grab one piece of each of the 5-round fights on this slate. Jon Jones will be a good blocker play because he has 5 rounds to work with and strong finish props. Oliveira also has strong inside props as the favorite. I’d take both favorites in cash and move on. The key will be getting those nice middle-range underdogs who win to get you the safety.
Moneyball16: When it comes to Jones/Miocic, I would play Jones and fade Miocic. There’s too little chance of a win for Miocic, the likelihood that he’s finished early is too high, and historically, Jones has been virtually impossible to score against. With the Oliveira/Chandler fight, I will be stacking them in cash. It doesn’t have good odds to go the full rounds, and Chandler doesn’t have great odds to win this one, but Chandler brings the action, and his salary makes fitting in the high-priced fighters easier.
Bward586: Both of the 5-round fights this week are at least -475 to end inside the distance, making neither ideal stacking candidates. Of the two, I prefer to stack the co-main event between Chandler and Oliveira. Chandler put up 23 points in his 2nd-round loss to Oliveira in their first meeting and is live to get some free takedown points due to Oliveira accepting bottom position. With that said, if you can find a way to make lineups work without stacking the main eventers, it’s probably preferable.
LiamPicksFights: Jon Jones has overperformed his salary on DK 12 times in his UFC career, and his only heavyweight fight was a performance of over 100 points. Stipe Miocic hasn’t competed since March of 2021, and he was on the wrong end of a Francis Ngannou KO. What was most jarring is he was dominated in the wrestling by a lesser wrestler and grappler on paper in Ngannou. I think either Jones or Miocic is in the optimal lineup, but it is more likely to be Jones, and the upside on Jones is clearer than the upside on Stipe given his grappling pedigree.
Which fight are you most likely to avoid and why?
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About the Author
Robert Brown (aka Epignosis) was having lunch at a sports bar. A football game was on. He remarked to his wife that if he could have a second life, he’d like to be someone who enjoyed watching sports. That enjoyment began when he signed up for a fantasy football league that needed one more player. Since then, he has enjoyed playing NFL, NBA, and (especially) MLB DFS. When not teaching American literature, editing content for RotoGrinders (which he has done since 2019), or making lineups, Epignosis is rocking out or jazzing it up on one of several possible instruments.