MMA DFS Expert Survey: UFC Fight Night - Burns vs. Morales

by Justin Bailey (Jbails26) Last Updated 2025-05-16 22:17:50 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Our panel of experts is here to give you their MMA DFS advice for this week’s contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Billy Ward’s favorite value play? Or h3budda’s top fighter for tournaments? Find out below!

MMA DFS Picks: DraftKings Expert Survey for UFC Fight Night – Burns vs. Morales

Who is your favorite fighter to spend up for in cash games?

h3budda: Morales
Moneyball16: Camilo
Bward586: Morales
LiamPicksFights: Morales

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What are your thoughts about stacking the 5-round fight in cash games?

h3budda: There’s not a lot of safety on this card for underdogs. I think you stack this main event with a strong potential for a nice floor of strikes. You are looking at a near +200 to go to a decision, which isn’t great. The only other way to try to attack in cash games would be using Pinheiro. That could be a nice floor of significant strikes for -400 to go to a decision.

Moneyball16: On initial glance, it doesn’t look like a great fight to stack, with Burns having such low odds to win and the fight not having great odds to go the full 5 rounds, but ultimately I think it is better than the alternatives. This way, you at least have the floor that comes with being protected from the upset, and you do have some potential of a strong-scoring 5-round fight.

Bward586: This isn’t a great stack based on betting markets, with the under 3.5 line favored. With that said, Burns could land some takedowns early in this fight, as he so often does, and he’s an absurdly cheap $6,500. I’m not necessarily starting my cash game build with this fight, but if the salary relief gets me to other plays that I like, I’d be fine with it.

LiamPicksFights: I don’t love the idea of stacking this main event because I expect Morales to be more damaging with his offense and more durable than his opponent, who has crossed the threshold (38) for when fighters begin to get knocked out much more regularly. I expect Morales will finish Burns and prevent him from scoring well. Burns needs wrestling success to score in this fight, and I don’t project much of that.