MMA DFS Expert Survey: UFC Fight Night - Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Our panel of experts is here to give you their MMA DFS advice for this week’s contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Billy Ward’s favorite value play? Or h3budda’s top fighter for tournaments? Find out below!
MMA DFS Picks: DraftKings Expert Survey for UFC Fight Night – Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Who is your favorite fighter to spend up for in cash games?
h3budda: Hernandez
Moneyball16: Edwards
Bward586: Smith
LiamPicksFights: Edwards/Smith
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What are your thoughts about stacking the 5-round fight in cash games?
h3budda: There’s some tight pricing on this slate that almost forces you into a cash stack. The main event is -130 to go over 3.5 rounds. That’s a good floor on this slate for both guys. There should be a lot of scrambles that could result in reversals or volume striking. The only other way to attack in cash is playing some of the underdog women’s fights.
Moneyball16: I think Hernandez is a cash lock. He has 5 rounds to work with to go along with great win odds for his price and strong takedown upside. As for Dolidze, I think you can take him or leave him- 5 rounds is always nice for a floor, but Hernandez has been very hard to score against historically.
Bward586: You’re obviously playing Hernandez here, as his relentless takedown pace led to just under 200 points on DraftKings in his only other 5-round fight to date. In a perfect world, we’d build a lineup without Dolidze, as barring an early finish, it doesn’t seem like he has much of a shot of getting a win. However, the lack of viable cheap options makes it somewhat hard to find alternative pathways, so I may default to using Dolidze.
LiamPicksFights: Hernandez is an absolute slate breaker and proven scorer as a DFS commodity, but he has also put up single-digit scores in both of his UFC losses (which were finishes in Rd. 1/2). Dolidze has proven 100+ point upside in his early finishes, and he has a strong floor in his wins of 82+ points, but when he sees the scorecards, he hasn’t surpassed 92 points. I think picking a side in the main event is better than stacking, but there is an argument for both. Dolidze could bank early rounds and then succumb to the pace late.
Which fight are you most likely to avoid and why?
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About the Author
Robert Brown (aka Epignosis) was having lunch at a sports bar. A football game was on. He remarked to his wife that if he could have a second life, he’d like to be someone who enjoyed watching sports. That enjoyment began when he signed up for a fantasy football league that needed one more player. Since then, he has enjoyed playing NFL, NBA, and (especially) MLB DFS. When not teaching American literature, editing content for RotoGrinders (which he has done since 2019), or making lineups, Epignosis is rocking out or jazzing it up on one of several possible instruments.