MMA DFS Expert Survey: UFC Fight Night - Emmett vs. Murphy
Our panel of experts is here to give you their MMA DFS advice for this week’s contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Billy Ward’s favorite value play? Or h3budda’s top fighter for tournaments? Find out below!
MMA DFS Picks: DraftKings Expert Survey for UFC Fight Night – Emmett vs. Murphy
Who is your favorite fighter to spend up for in cash games?
h3budda: Murphy
Moneyball16: Murphy
Bward586: Murphy
LiamPicksFights: Barbosa
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What are your thoughts about stacking the 5-round fight in cash games?
h3budda: You now have a great value in Martin Buday on this slate after a super late drop off. He will be priced as a relatively big underdog closing as a -150 favorite. With that being said, your main event 5 rounds will be -150 to go to a decision. You are locking in a very safe floor by stacking this main event. There should be a great pace for striking at a high rate.
Moneyball16: You’d hope for better win odds from the underdog in the 5-rounder for cash, but overall, I think this is still a relatively easy stack. This fight is -154 to go the full 25 minutes, it should be fought at a solid pace, and while Emmett is only expected to win around 25% of the time, he is very cheap at $6,900. Murphy on the other side has a nice all-around game that makes him a good cash play with 5 rounds to work with.
Bward586: This is the rare 5-round fight that I expect to go 5 rounds, but one that I probably won’t stack. Josh Emmett has some upside via a quick knockout, but if he doesn’t get one, his floor is fairly low. He doesn’t strike or land takedowns at a high rate, and Murphy has very good striking defense. I also think there’s better options around his salary range thanks to the opponent switch for Buday, which creates a potential stack for $1,300 less combined salary.
LiamPicksFights: I think Josh Emmett is the kind of fighter that is difficult to handicap, but he is a proven underdog, a massive hitter, and he can leave his opponent with a blank score. Conversely, when Emmett loses, he tends to let fights fall off the rails, getting finished by Yair Rodriguez in the second round and getting 50-42 against Ilia Topuria. I prefer running multiple lineups and choosing a side in the main event.
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About the Author
Robert Brown (aka Epignosis) was having lunch at a sports bar. A football game was on. He remarked to his wife that if he could have a second life, he’d like to be someone who enjoyed watching sports. That enjoyment began when he signed up for a fantasy football league that needed one more player. Since then, he has enjoyed playing NFL, NBA, and (especially) MLB DFS. When not teaching American literature, editing content for RotoGrinders (which he has done since 2019), or making lineups, Epignosis is rocking out or jazzing it up on one of several possible instruments.