MMA DFS Expert Survey: UFC Fight Night - Hernandez vs. Pereira

by Justin Bailey (Jbails26) Last Updated 2024-10-19 14:14:41 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Our panel of experts is here to give you their MMA DFS advice for this week’s contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Moneyball16’s favorite value play? Or h3budda’s top fighter for tournaments? Find out below!

MMA DFS Picks: DraftKings Expert Survey for UFC Fight Night – Hernandez vs. Pereira

Who is your favorite fighter to spend up for in cash games?

SquirrelPatrol: Phillips
h3budda: Despaigne
Moneyball16: Hernandez
Bward586: Phillips

How are you handling the massive value on Jake Hadley considering his high expected ownership?

SquirrelPatrol: I’ll likely have Hadley in 50% or more of my lineups and probably more in higher-dollar contests. Hadley’s win equity is outstanding for his price tag, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll have a low-scoring win. If the fighters were repriced after the opponent change, he’d possibly be the highest-priced fighter on the slate.

h3budda: Smotherman is taking this late-notice spot after flying overseas to corner a teammate. He has a tough task to cut weight while getting back to the United States this week. I think Hadley should be the more technical guy who will be able to land some heavy strikes to potentially take the late-notice opponent out of there. I’ll be taking a heavy stance on Hadley at -450 at only $7,700. He is highly likely optimal on this small of a slate.

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Moneyball16: Hadley is a lock in cash and GPPs. I don’t think I will be too far from the general ownership. Smotherman will be a fine leverage play as well. Where I would differentiate from the field is that in lineups with Hadley, I am going to be more willing to leave salary on the table. You will be able to make good lineups without using all of the $50,000 in salary.

Bward586: I expect to be roughly in line with the field on Hadley, as he’s obviously a huge value when you factor in his moneyline and price tag. He’s also a lock for cash games for obvious reasons. I’m also going to have a fair amount of Smotherman though. Any scenario where Hadley doesn’t make the optimal lineup probably means Smotherman does, and their combined salaries are $800 cheaper than in typical matchups.

Which fight are you most likely to avoid and why?

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