MMA DFS Expert Survey: UFC Fight Night - Lewis vs. Nascimento
Our panel of experts is here to give you their MMA DFS advice for this week’s contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Squirrelpatrol’s favorite value play? Or h3budda’s top fighter for tournaments? Find out below!
MMA DFS Picks: DraftKings Expert Survey for UFC Fight Night – Lewis vs. Nascimento
What are your thoughts about stacking the 5-round fight in cash?
eys819: I would either play Lewis (for the first-round KO upside) or avoid the fight altogether for cash games. The fight is expected to end before the start of the 3rd round, so you can essentially ignore the fact it is scheduled for 5 rounds. Also, the loser of this fight is likely to score poorly, and the fight does not provide the floor we are looking for in a prototypical cash game stack.
Moneyball16: This one is not a stack. Its odds of going the full 5 rounds are so low that you may as well treat it like a 3-round fight, and Derrick Lewis fights are typically fought at a slow pace. He doesn’t strike for volume or grapple much, and his power typically makes his opponents a little more cautious. The odds that Nascimento puts up single-digit DK points are too high to like him in cash. Lewis is only an okay play in cash.
h3budda: As crazy as this sounds, I don’t think you need to stack this fight. You have a value side in Lewis, who has moneyline value compared to his salary. You can then get the Ruziboev value and then decide what to do from there. The pace will be lacking in the main event, so you need that win equity.
squirrelpatrol: In Derrick Lewis’ last three losses, he has fought for 29 minutes and put up 12.9 total DK points. His floor is zero- the score he put up against Serghei Spivac last year- making this a fight to avoid for cash. I think you can stack one of the fights expected to go to decision if you want or just try to pick six fighters from different fights with high floors.
Bward586: The floor for both fighters here is effectively zero. Lewis scores very poorly on a per-minute basis. He has low striking volume and almost 0 takedowns. He could also put Nascimento out immediately, in which case Nascimento wouldn’t score well. Therefore, stacking this one is about the opportunity cost of picking the wrong winner more than securing floor. While I’m okay with stacking it to lock in a win, if you feel comfortable with either (or neither) fighter and like builds without them, that’s my preferred way to play.