MMA Event Breakdown - UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
The UFC returns to the Great White North with two title fights, an international cast of characters, and as many home town heroes as I can remember for a Canada card! After a lackluster fight night offering to start off the year, the combat sports leader is BACK with a much better offering. Is it perfect by PPV standards? NO. Is it a step in the right direction for fight fans? YES! So without further ado, let’s start breaking down what promises to be a fun night of action.
Malcolm Gordon vs. Jimmy Flick
Fight Odds: -220 Gordon vs. +180 Flick
Weight Class: 125lb. (Men’s Flyweight)
Malcolm “X” Gordon being -2xx in a UFC fight was never on my Bingo card for UFC in 2024. For a long time, I sang the praises of Gordon as an underrated grappler in the flyweight division with the unfortunate distinction of having a terrible chin for a professional cage fighter. We have seen many instances in UFC fights of opponents being willing to grapple with Gordon and finding themselves surprised that he has some core competencies to match them. However, we have also seen instances where Gordon gets run through on the mat as was the case against Amir Albazi, who submitted him via triangle choke in the very first round. Gordon’s losses in the UFC are all forgivable to one extent or another, as he has lost to Jake Hadley (solid BJJ, better power, more durable), Muhammad Mokaev (way higher ceiling, way better wrestler, more durable), Su Mudaerji (ironically a terrible grappler with enough power that he easily murked Malcolm), and Amir Albazi. All of those fighters are ranked within the division, whereas Jimmy Flick was retired within recent memory and has seemed like a shell of himself recently inside the octagon.
Luckily for Flick, he has never been submitted as a professional fighter, and Malcolm’s best tool set is his own grappling. Gordon is the better striker of the two both on paper and in actuality, but the difference isn’t so marked that I would feel comfortable making Gordon a 70% favorite. Flick can compete if not win in the grappling, he can compete if not win in the striking, and he can compete if not win in the wrestling. Unless Flick didn’t train for the fight and is simply cashing a check, I believe the odds do not reflect the skill level of both athletes. Gordon has lost to worse fighters than Jimmy Flick regionally, including Dimitri Waardenburg (11-7) via KO1. Gordon has now missed weight twice in a row and he’s unimpressive. I wouldn’t be surprised if both men are cut with a Gordon win. I expect Gordon to be cut if Flick wins. Malcolm has never landed more than 46 significant strikes in a UFC fight, so I’m not convinced he is a lock to KO Flick, and I don’t project him to have better BJJ at a high clip either.
Prediction: Jimmy Flick defeats Malcolm Gordon via SUB1 (Flying Triangle)