SquirrelPatrol's Takedowns: UFC 291 - Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
John Breslin (squirrelpatrol) is one of the best DFS players in the game, having amassed over 75 Live Final seats. Get a glimpse into his process by checking out some of his contrarian MMA DFS picks for the upcoming UFC event.
Welcome to the weekend and to SquirrelPatrol’s Takedowns for UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2. This PPV card will be taking place in the elevation of Salt Lake City, and with weigh-ins complete 11 of the 12 fights have been confirmed. This card features a large number of fights with a better-than-even chance of finishing inside the distance and culminates with a high-volume banger of a main event, so there could be plenty of points scored. Let’s dig into the slate and see if we can find some overlooked picks to help us takedown a GPP this weekend:
MMA DFS Picks: SquirrelPatrol’s Takedowns for UFC 291 – Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Alex Pereira
DraftKings: $8,000
FanDuel: $15
Alex Pereira is barely even an underdog anymore with the line moving in his favor throughout the week, and his match with Jan Blachowicz is now a toss-up. Both of these fighters have tremendous power, but I like Pereira’s chances moving up in weight to the 205 lb light heavyweight division. I’m surprised to see Pereira’s ownership projected in the 20% range on both sites, as he has legendary power and now has slight win equity at his price as well. Periera has about a 20% chance of a first round finish with his +375 odds, and with his pricing in the middle of the salary range he lands an excellent chance of landing on the winning lineup if he gets that early finish.
Trevin Giles
DraftKings: $7,000
FanDuel: $9
There is no bigger leverage spot on the slate than Trevin Giles, facing the very popular Gabriel Bonfim as the second-biggest underdog on the card. Giles has much better odds than his ownership indicates however, with single-digit projected ownership on both sites despite reasonable +260 odds to win that give him a better than 25% chance of upsetting Bonfim. With Bonfim likely to be owned on more than 40% of lineups and a discount price tag on both sites, Giles stands a very good chance of hitting the winning lineup if he pulls the upset, meaning his ownership is a fraction of what it should be. Bonfim is coming into only his second UFC fight, so if his inexperience costs him a win it could vault lineups with Giles up the GPP leaderboards.
Priscila Cachoeira