SquirrelPatrol's Takedowns: UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
John Breslin (squirrelpatrol) is one of the best DFS players in the game, having amassed over 100 Live Final seats. Get a glimpse into his process by checking out some of his contrarian MMA DFS picks for the upcoming UFC event.
Welcome to the weekend and to SquirrelPatrol’s Takedowns for UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier. This card is being held at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ and features two five-round fights, with both the Main Event and Co-Main Event getting extra rounds. The card has thankfully stayed at 12 fights, a bit on the small side for a PPV event, with only one fighter missing weight on Friday (Andre Lima), but his opponent agreed to the fight even with the weight miss. This event is also the setting for the DraftKings UFC Live Final, and I’ll have one of the final 15 entries looking to take down the championship. Let’s see if we can find some overlooked fighters to help us take that down (along with other GPPs) this weekend.
MMA DFS Picks: SquirrelPatrol’s Takedowns for UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Cesar Almeida
DraftKings: $8,000
FanDuel: $14
Cesar Almeida has seen the line flip in his fight, making him a slight -125 favorite over Roman Kopylov and giving him about a 55% implied probability of getting the win despite his underdog price tag on DFS sites. I don’t always go chasing after win equity in the middle range of pricing, as it can cause high projected ownership, but on a card with such wide underdogs, we may need the points that come with any kind of win if all of the strong favorites win their bouts. Almeida put up over 93 DK points in his UFC debut win less than two months ago, so the scoring should be there in a win.
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