Free This Week Only! SquirrelPatrol's Takedowns: UFC 304 - Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
John Breslin (squirrelpatrol) is one of the best DFS players in the game, having amassed over 100 Live Final seats. Get a glimpse into his process by checking out some of his contrarian MMA DFS picks for the upcoming UFC event.
Welcome to the weekend and to SquirrelPatrol’s Takedowns for UFC 304 – Edwards vs. Muhammad 2. This PPV card is taking place across the pond in Manchester, England, and features a number of fighters local to the region, as well as two 5-round fights. Englishman Tom Aspinall is facing American Curtis Blaydes for the Interim Heavyweight Title in the 5-round Co-Main Event, while Leon Edwards is defending the Welterweight Title in his home country again, this time against Chicago-based Belal Muhammad in the five-round Main Event.
Although this card is taking place in the UK, the start time for the early prelims (and DFS slate lock) is 6 PM ET, with the PPV Main Card scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET. By the time we get to the last fights, it could be 5:00 AM local time, meaning the crowd could be either very rowdy or very tired or both, and the local fighters could curiously be at a disadvantage.
Let’s see if we can find some overlooked fighters to help us take down a GPP this weekend.
MMA DFS Picks: SquirrelPatrol’s Takedowns for UFC 304 – Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Curtis Blaydes
DraftKings: $6,800
FanDuel: $14
Curtis Blaydes was just a slight +120 underdog when he faced Tom Aspinall 2 years ago. Blaydes won in the 1st round (albeit due to an Aspinall knee injury), but he is now a +310 underdog in the rematch. Priced at just $6,800, Blaydes doesn’t need a huge score in a win to land on the winning lineup, but he’s capable of a monster score regardless, having put up over 172 DK points in his only 5-round decision win. Blaydes provides massive leverage with Aspinall projected at ~58% pOWN%, and his value price allows us to stack the rest of our lineup with other strong favorites.
Kiefer Crosbie
DraftKings: $6,900
FanDuel: $10
Kiefer Crosbie is the biggest underdog at the card with +325 odds to win his fight (22% implied probability), but he is seeing very low pOWN% of about 8% as a result. Crosbie has a higher probability for a 1st-round win (+625 odds, 13% implied probability) than that pOWN%. At his value $6,900 price tag, an early win would almost certainly land him on the winning lineup. We have seen Crosbie’s opponent, Sam Patterson, get knocked out in the 1st round before as a large local favorite on a card in the United Kingdom, so I will look to get over the field on Crosbie.
Alice Ardelean
DraftKings: $7,300
FanDuel: $12
Alice Ardelean is making her UFC debut, but her opponent, Shauna Bannon, has lost her only fight in the UFC, and Ardelean has better odds for a 1st-round win (+625) and better ITD odds (+290) than Bannon. Ardelean has excellent +145 win odds for her $7,300 price tag, and she could score well in a win, with the prop market favoring her for over 0.5 takedowns and 60.5 significant strikes.
Paddy Pimblett
DraftKings: $8,000
FanDuel: $15
Paddy Pimblett isn’t the most popular fighter among UFC fans, as the organization has given him a soft schedule so far in his UFC career, and he has had to rely on some controversial decision wins to remain undefeated. Pimblett is getting another fight near home, however. With his fight against King Green nearly a coin flip, we have the opportunity to pick Paddy for our lineups at an underdog price for the first time in his UFC career. Pimblett has +475 odds for a 1st-round win, better odds for an early victory than his opponent Green, and the best odds of any underdog fighter.
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Good luck to everyone this Saturday, and enjoy the fights!
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