SquirrelPatrol's Takedowns: UFC Fight Night - Tybura vs. Spivac 2
John Breslin (squirrelpatrol) is one of the best DFS players in the game, having amassed over 100 Live Final seats. Get a glimpse into his process by checking out some of his contrarian MMA DFS picks for the upcoming UFC event.
Welcome to the weekend and to SquirrelPatrol’s Takedowns for UFC Fight Night – Tybura vs. Spivac 2. This card is taking place at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas with a 5 PM ET start time on Saturday. We’re down to 10 fights on this card before weigh-ins, with several fights being canceled already and Chris Gutierrez seeing an opponent switch that has left him dramatically underpriced as the biggest favorite on the card. The main event is a 5-round heavyweight rematch between Sergey Spivak and Marcin Tybura, with Tybura winning the original matchup in 2020 in a decision. This is a tricky card with Gutierrez being mispriced, and features some underdogs that could be very high scoring in a win.
Let’s see if we can find some overlooked fighters to help us take down a GPP this weekend.
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MMA DFS Picks: SquirrelPatrol’s Takedowns for UFC Fight Night – Tybura vs. Spivac 2
Chris Gutierrez
DraftKings: $7,000
FanDuel: $12
What to do with Chris Gutierrez is a major decision point on this slate. Gutierrez is the biggest favorite on the card but also one of the cheapest fighters on the slate due to his opponent being replaced this week. Traditionally, he hasn’t been the highest scorer, with 5 of his UFC wins coming in around 75 points or below on DraftKings. For reference, the last time we had a major mispricing was in April when James Llontop was a massive favorite priced at $8,200 on DraftKings. Llontop was rostered on more than 50% of the lineups in the large field contests and more than 80% of the rosters in the high-dollar contest and lost his fight as a -450 favorite. I’ll likely be under the field on Gutierrez if he reaches those marks on this slate, but will still use him heavily, pairing him with lower-owned fighters in my lineups.
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