SquirrelPatrol's Takedowns: UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza
John Breslin (squirrelpatrol) is one of the best DFS players in the game, having amassed over 90 Live Final seats. Get a glimpse into his process by checking out some of his contrarian MMA DFS picks for the upcoming UFC event.
Welcome to the weekend and to SquirrelPatrol’s Takedowns for UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza. This card is being held at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, and we unfortunately lost the Chairez vs Da Silva fight again, giving us 11 fights on the slate. This card features one fight that could see a lot of action early and then a number of fights that are more difficult to predict – this gives us some opportunities to leverage projections and ownership to get different from the field with our lineups. Let’s dig into the slate and see if we can find some overlooked picks to help us take down a GPP this weekend.
MMA DFS Picks: SquirrelPatrol’s Takedowns for UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza
Brendon Marotte
DraftKings: $6,700
FanDuel: $8
Brendon Marotte is the biggest long shot on the card, but we don’t have to go back far to find big upsets in the UFC. The two biggest underdogs have won the past two cards – Bobby Green over Grant Dawson last week, and Cody Brundage over Jacob Malkoun the card before that. Both of those underdog fighters ended up on the large-field tournament-winning lineup at low ownership. Marotte is a +400 underdog that equates to a little less than a 20% implied probability of winning his fight against Terrance McKinney, but McKinney is likely to be the highest-owned fighter on the card, and Marotte is projected at just 6.8% ownership. I think McKinney is the top fighter on the slate, but for multi-entry, I don’t mind the idea of aiming to be overweight both fighters and praying we don’t see a post-lock cancellation.