MMA Event Breakdown: UFC 301 - Pantoja vs. Erceg
Flyweights reign supreme at UFC 301, as the men’s 125lb. division headlines for a second straight week, this time for a pay-per-view showcase live from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The card is stacked with Brazilian fighters taking on foreign adversaries, so it should be a lively crowd and an exciting night of action. The card is book-ended by flyweight matchups, so let’s begin with the curtain jerker between Alessandro Costa (BRA) and Kevin Borjas (PER) in a closely lined affair.
MMA Event Breakdown: UFC 301 – Pantoja vs. Erceg
Alessandro Costa vs. Kevin Borjas
Fight Odds: -120 Costa vs. +100 Borjas
Weight Class: 125lb. (Flyweight)
This is a well-matched preliminary opener because the odds are tight and the winner is difficult to predict. Alessandro Costa’s only losses in the UFC are to Steve Erceg (headlining the event as a title challenger) and Amir Albazi (top-3 ranked flyweight), two well-rounded ranked fighters. He accepted the Albazi fight on short notice and kept it competitive until he gassed out late and got finished with brutal uppercuts. On paper, his advantages are more quality professional and UFC experience, more takedown and grappling upside, home crowd support, and a 1-0 record as a UFC favorite for a handsome 36.4% return on investment. The difficulty in trusting him especially at a slight chalk price tag is the fact that he has been outlanded on significant strikes in three of his four UFC/DWCS fights.
Borjas landed more significant strikes (75) losing his UFC debut against highly-touted prospect Joshua Van (getting nearly doubled up on significant strikes in his own right) than Costa has ever landed in a UFC fight (65 was his most vs. Flick). Borjas has done well to scramble back to his feet when taken down in his two fights, but he has been taken down 7 times in 30 minutes of cage time and controlled for 9 minutes. Additionally, Borjas was taken down and submitted regionally by Renzo Mendez (13-6), so perhaps the black belt chops of Costa could be his advantage if he can be more positionally sound and less rushed than he was against Steve Erceg.
I think Costa has more paths to victory, so he is my pick, but Borjas is certainly live to KO Costa or nab a close decision because of his volume, output, and on-paper durability edge. Costa has only suffered two official knockdowns, but he was badly hurt and compromised against Erceg at one point.
Prediction: Alessandro Costa defeats Kevin Borjas via SUB1 (Armbar) or SDEC