MMA Event Breakdown - UFC Fight Night - Almeida vs. Lewis
UFC Fight Night: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis
The UFC makes its long awaited return to Sao Paulo, Brazil for the first Brazilian fight night card since before the Covid-19 pandemic, headlined by a heavyweight tilt between Jailton Almeida and Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis. The card will also feature a number of talented Brazilian prospects, dynamic finishers, and interesting clashes of style.
Kaue Fernandes vs. Marc Diakiese
Fight Odds: +165 Fernandes vs. -190 Diakiese
Weight Class: 155lb. (Lightweight)
Marc Diakiese has had fourteen fights inside the octagon, so it was a bit puzzling to see him booked in this matchup. Kaue Fernandes looks like a very fun, exciting fighter that the fans can get behind, but he is far from proven at this point. Diakiese has had significantly more UFC bouts than Fernandes has had fights as a professional, but I am not sure the UFC likes having Diakiese around. Diakiese was signed as an exciting striker nicknamed “Bonecrusher,” and now he is content to out-wrestle his lightweight counterparts to hopelessly boring DECs. Diakiese’s best path in this fight will be to do just that, as Fernandes is an explosive kicker with legit KO power, so the more you can ground him and put him on his back, the better chance you have to win.
Fernandes is also sound on the mat, but he can get too content searching for the overhook armbar series off his back instead of diligently creating opportunities to stand up. If this fight ends inside the distance, I think Fernandes will make a good account of himself, land hard kicks, and compete well in the grappling. If the fight gets extended, I expect the shorter notice, the stall out style of Diakiese, and the experience dynamic to favor Diakiese. For me, the deciding factor is that Fernandes has KO power, he has a BJJ black belt, and he is not afraid to fight a more experienced opponent. I like Fernandes to upset the apple cart, but I acknowledge Diakiese can suck the air out of the arena if he rides out top time all three rounds.
Prediction: Kaue Fernandes defeats Marc Diakiese via Club/SUB (Head Kick/Guillotine)