MMA Event Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Barboza vs. Murphy
UFC Fight Night – Barboza vs. Murphy
The UFC returns to the far-too-familiar confines of the Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada this weekend for a featherweight showcase featuring fan favorite striker Edson “Junior” Barboza and undefeated U.K. prospect Lerone “The Miracle” Murphy. The card is stacked with action fighters, fun finishers, and three bouts in the talent-stacked women’s strawweight division. We’ll begin our breakdown in the aforementioned women’s strawweight division as “Lil Monster” Vanessa Demopoulos takes on “Gordinha” Emily Ducote.
Emily Ducote vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
Fight Odds: -400 Ducote vs. +300 Demopoulos
Weight Class: W115lb. (Women’s Strawweight)
Emily Ducote is coming off a win over Ashley Yoder in her last fight, but she wasn’t able to close the show like I expected, and it was further evidence that I may have to temper my expectations for Ducote in the UFC. Ducote has accrued a ton of professional experience, but she still fights within relatively close margins, and she has lost multiple times in her career as a significant favorite in Bellator. Ducote can be thudding with her strikes and her combination work is impactful, but she is absorbing an insane 8 significant strikes per minute across a four-fight sample size, including conceding 100 significant strikes to Yoder as a -3xx favorite.
Vanessa Demopoulos is an undersized fighter even at strawweight, but what she lacks in physicality, she makes up for in toughness, grit, and will to win. Demopoulos has a decorated jiu jitsu pedigree and her go-to hold is the armbar, a submission which troubled Ducote in her only submission loss.
Ducote is a solid and well-rounded fighter, but she has not proven to me that she can easily outpoint Demopoulos. If anyone got a submission here, I would expect it to be Demopoulos, and I think either girl has a chance to land a knock down, as Demopoulos is the only one of the pair to have a UFC knock down on her ledger to this point. Ducote is likely to be ahead on the strike count if this stays standing, so Demopoulos will need to mix up the phases of the fight, land impactful strikes that score, or find an opportunistic finish in order to win the bout. Ducote should be favored as the more skilled athlete, but I would make her 65-70% at most (-400 = 80%), so my numbers say Demopoulos is a live underdog. I’m sticking to a system that has paid me well and never fading a stripper in Las Vegas.
Prediction: Vanessa Demopoulos defeats Emily Ducote via SDEC
Kleydson Rodrigues vs. Heili Alateng
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About the Author
Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights