MMA Expert Survey - UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier

Curious to know the tournament target? Want to know our analysts’ favorite fight? Below we answer lineup-building questions to help you prepare for the upcoming slate.

MMA Expert Survey – UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier

Who is your favorite fighter for optimal lineups?

eys819: Volkanovski
Moneyball16: Adesanya
h3budda: Volkanovski
blenderhd: Holloway

Who is your favorite fighter for tournaments?

eys819: Turner
Moneyball16: Volkanovski
h3budda: Adesanya
blenderhd: Muniz

Which stud fighter are you fading in tournaments?

eys819: Barber
Moneyball16: Barber
h3budda: Barber
blenderhd: Adesanya

Who is your favorite chalky value play?

eys819: Holloway
Moneyball16: Holloway
h3budda: Holloway
blenderhd: Holloway

Who is your favorite low-owned value play?

eys819: Cerrone
Moneyball16: Hall
h3budda: Barberena
blenderhd: Cerrone

Which fighter are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

eys819: Muniz
Moneyball16: Muniz
h3budda: Clark
blenderhd: Pereira

Which fighter are you looking to avoid the most?

eys819: Tavares
Moneyball16: Tavares
h3budda: O’Malley
blenderhd: Lawler

Who do you think will have the highest score of the week?

eys819: Volkanovski
Moneyball16: Volkanovski
h3budda: Volkanovski
blenderhd: Muniz

What are your thoughts about stacking the five-round fight in cash?

eys819: We have seen the massive floor Volkanovski/Holloway fights offer twice already. There is no reason to believe this won’t be another fast-paced, high-volume fight with both fighters scoring well. Adesanya is the biggest favorite on the card and one of the safest options on the slate. He makes a ton of sense for cash games. Cannonier is the one you can skip for cash. Izzy is very difficult to score against and Cannonier doesn’t have much win equity.

Moneyball16: I think you definitely want both sides of the Volkanovski/Holloway fight. Its expected to go the full 5 rounds around 60% of the time and both guys fight at a good pace, and their previous 2 matches would have been good stacks. As for the other fight I don’t think Cannonier is playable in cash. Low win equity, low historical DFS output, and Adesanya is DFS death for his opponents, where theyve only averaged 28 DKPs in Adesanyas 11 wins.

h3budda: You are automatically stacking the Volkanovski/Holloway fight as we have seen these two smash scoring over 5 rounds in their first 2 bouts. It is possible Max hits value over 5 rounds on this slate. The real question is if you double stack or not. I personally will not be doing so because Cannonier is a low volume power striker. Combine that with Adesanya’s historical poor scoring and lack of finishins you have a slow paced main event. You will likely want to have one of them, though.

blenderhd: At 7200, Holloway is an automatic play in cash games as he’s only a 170 underdog in a high volume fight that likely goes the distance. That salary savings will allow you to build high median lineups with five favorites. Playing him with Volkanovski makes sense as the winner, regardless of how long the fight lasts, will likely score 90 points. However, stacking the other five-rounder is questionable with it likely to be a low volume striking battle. Adesanya provides some level of safety at 9400 as a -490 favorite, but I’m not sure if he is an ultimate priority even in cash lineups.

What is the fight you are most likely to avoid and why?

eys819: Barber/Eye – The fight is around -250 to end in a decision with Barber a wide favorite to get her hand raised. There is a lot of finishing equity on this slate, so a decision victory for Barber at a salary above $9K is likely not enough to be relevant. Eye is fine as a punt, but she doesn’t have much upside either. She is unlikely to score well enough unless she is one of the only underdogs to win.

Moneyball16: Barber/Eye – This one is easily the fight most likely to go to a decision(at around 65% of the time), historically both these fighters have fought at below-average paces and the price point on this one is bad too, with the most likely result being a decision win for Barber at 9100.

h3budda: Barber – Maycee is the “odd lady out” of the studs on this slate. She has a massive +333 inside the distnace line. On this slate you will need finish equity or grappling upside. She is only taking ladies down at a 1.3 takedown rate.

blenderhd: Garry/Green – On paper, the Barber/Eye fight seems obvious as the one with the least potential for the winner to score 100+ points, but it will also be quite low-owned due to that. However, both Garry & Green project to be 25-30% owned while the ceiling of this fight doesn’t warrant it. Neither rely on a ground game much, so a striking-based decision win is the likely outcome – which given the context of this slate may not be enough for either fighter to be optimal.

Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

eys819: Volkanovski – The high-volume striking with potentially a few take downs mixed in give him a massive ceiling over 5 rounds. The fight has a high proababilty of lasting the full 5 rounds with odds over -200 to end in a decision for the 3rd time. Volkanovski landed well over 100 significant strikes in each of the first two fights and should do it again in this one.

Moneyball16: Alex Volkanovski – In his 11 UFC fights he has averaged over 110 DKPs, in his 4 5 round fights hes averaged 116.5 DKPs, hes already beaten Max Holloway twice and should do it again. This fight should be a fight where Volkanovski can rack up a lot of coutning stats against a fighter not know for his defense.

h3budda: Volkanovski – I am not sure you have a better floor and ceiling play over five rounds right now as Alexander has been. He is very aggressive and his price is easy to roster. In dynamic pricing he would be north of 10k on this slate. The past two fights against Max he scored 103 and 94 points over 5 rounds. That is predictable again in this matchup.

blenderhd: Andre Muniz – He’s second biggest favorite on the slate. He has the highest ITD line by far at -180. He’s an excellent wrestler and submission grappler whose opponent has no ground game. Despite there being two 5-round fights, Muniz still may have the highest ceiling on the slate with DraftKings scoring favoring his style so greatly. He won’t be under the rader at all as he projects to be very chalky (35-40% pOWN), but I believe even so, he’s actually under-owned for his probability of being optimal.

What’s your hot take of the week?

eys819: One of O’Malley or Muniz gets upset.

Moneyball16: Despite being a 5 rounder and the most expensive fighter on the slate Adesanya puts up one of the lowest scores out of the winning fighters on the slate.

h3budda: Adesanya, O’Malley, Muniz, and Barber all fail to pay off their salaries. AND Volkanovski/Holloway stack sniffs optimal lineup on the slate.

blenderhd: The optimal lineup doesn’t contain a winning fighter from either of the 5-round bouts.

Image Credit: Imagn

Curious to know the tournament target? Want to know our analysts’ favorite fight? Below we answer lineup-building questions to help you prepare for the upcoming slate.

Who is your favorite fighter for optimal lineups?

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