MMA Expert Survey - UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill

Curious to know the tournament target? Want to know our analysts’ favorite fight? Below we answer lineup-building questions to help you prepare for the upcoming slate.

MMA Expert Survey – UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill

Editor’s Note #1: Tonight’s UFC fight between Jason Witt and Josh Quinlan has been canceled. Please make sure to edit your lineups prior to contest lock.

Editor’s Note #2: Tonight’s UFC fight between Ariane Lipski and Priscila Cachoeira has been canceled. Please make sure to edit your lineups prior to contest lock.

Who is your favorite fighter for optimal lineups?

eys819: Hill
Moneyball16: McKinney
h3budda: Hill
blenderhd: Hill

Who is your favorite fighter for tournaments?

eys819: McKinney
Moneyball16: Quinlan
h3budda: McKinney
blenderhd: Spivac

Which stud fighter are you fading in tournaments?

eys819: McKenna
Moneyball16: McKenna
h3budda: McKenna
blenderhd: Pauga

Who is your favorite chalky value play?

eys819: Neal
Moneyball16: Sato
h3budda: Neal
blenderhd: Egger

Who is your favorite low-owned value play?

eys819: Sato
Moneyball16: Sakai
h3budda: Witt
blenderhd: Sato

Which fighter are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

eys819: Oleksiejczuk
Moneyball16: Witt
h3budda: Oleksiejczuk
blenderhd: Witt

Which fighter are you looking to avoid the most?

eys819: Alvey
Moneyball16: Alvey
h3budda: McKenna
blenderhd: Alvey

Who do you think will have the highest score of the week?

eys819: McKinney
Moneyball16: McKinney
h3budda: Hill
blenderhd: McKinney

What are your thoughts about stacking the five-round fight in cash?

eys819: This fight is an underdog to make it even 3 rounds, so there is very little added value in it being a 5-round fight. Hill is a big enough favorite I think you just lock him in and move on. The floor is the reason we typically target the stack for cash, and it does not exist in this one.

Moneyball16: I don’t think you have to play Santos in this one. This fight is very unlikely to go the full 5 rounds, and Hill is expected to get an early finish quite a bit. Santos is still a fine cash play though.

h3budda: This is a tough one on this slate. I really think that one of the main event fighters will score 90-100+ and the other will score next to zero. The winner is likely going to be Hill and he’s the side I would use. You would have a better safer route if you used someone like Granger as a punt knowing you get 3 rounds of action out of her (-260 to go to a decision).

blenderhd: Underdogs with decent win odds are tough to come by on this slate, so stacking the main event with Santos at 7200 guarantees you the winner even though the fight is not expected to last long. If not, Granger at 7100 possibly offers you a better floor in a loss with her fight highly likely to go three rounds. Either way, I think it’s a close enough decision that you wouldn’t be crazy whatever way you choose.

What is the fight you are most likely to avoid and why?

eys819: McKenna/Granger – McKenna is the third highest-priced fighter on the slate and has nowhere near the upside of several fighters in this range. Her ITD line is +300, meaning the most likely outcome is a decision victory that does not score well enough for her price tag. I will have exposure to Granger, but I will be significantly underweight compared to the field as she projects to be the most popular underdog.

Moneyball16: Oleksiejczuk/Alvey – Neither of these guys has any grappling upside, Alvey has a long long history of slow-paced fights, and the pricepoints in this one just aren’t very good with Oleksiejczuk at 9300. I dont see him hitting upside much, and Alvey is just a low upside fighter himself.

h3budda: McKenna – She is -260 to go to a decision on a slate with a lot of action fighters. This is a women’s fight that may lack pure pace and you would rely on grappling to bail you out. Cory is the odd person out in the high price range for this slate.

blenderhd: Pauga/Usman – The obvious choice is the McKenna/Granger fight since it’s highly likely to go to decision, but the favorite will be quite low-owned and the underdog with a 70-point win can still come in useful on this slate. The heavyweight bout between Pauga & Usman will probably feature a low pace, limited grappling and realistically just relies on a R1 KO to hit a GPP-winning ceiling. While it won’t be that high owned of a fight, the window to 100+ points for either fighter remains quite small in comparison to its middling ownership.

Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

eys819: McKinney – He is around -900 to win, -400 to win ITD, and -170 to win in the first round. Those numbers scream massive upside. The downside is he is the most expensive fighter on the slate and he projects to be rostered by half the field. Banking on a chalky fighter who needs a first-round finish to meet value is not always the best idea, but I am trusting Mckinney to get it done in this spot.

Moneyball16: Quinlan – At 8600 he has tremendous upside with +210 odds to win in the first round and +120 to get a KO. I think maybe ownership goes overlooked on him too with it being his debut and the fight overall still having +170 odds to go the distance.

h3budda: Hill – Five rounds to work with and a potent finisher. He is -155 to win inside the distance and has scored over 100 points multiple times. I like that he fights with a high fight IQ (after that Craig blunder).

blenderhd: Spivac – This slate doesn’t feature many grappling-heavy fighters at all, so having one available with a -280 ML and -120 ITD line for only 8800 provides the most ceiling value for the salary. With two paths to 100+ points (early KO or grappling-based decision) and a salary that is useful on a slate without many good underdogs, he has the best shot at outscoring highly owned McKinney and Hill while fitting into high win equity lineup constructions.

What’s your hot take of the week?

eys819: At least three fighters priced above $8400 lose.

Moneyball16: The two Ultimate Fighter Final Fights are the two worst DFS fights of the night.

h3budda: Only two fights on this slate finish.

blenderhd: At least two women’s fighters make the optimal lineup.

Image Credit: Imagn

Curious to know the tournament target? Want to know our analysts’ favorite fight? Below we answer lineup-building questions to help you prepare for the upcoming slate.

Who is your favorite fighter for optimal lineups?

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