MMA Expert Survey - UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz

Curious to know the tournament target? Want to know our analysts’ favorite fight? Below we answer lineup-building questions to help you prepare for the upcoming slate.

MMA Expert Survey – UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz

Who is your favorite fighter for optimal lineups?

eys819: Vera
Moneyball16: Vera
h3budda: Vera
blenderhd: Vera

Who is your favorite fighter for tournaments?

eys819: Benitez
Moneyball16: Onama
h3budda: Lipski
blenderhd: Benitez

Which stud fighter are you fading in tournaments?

eys819: Godinez
Moneyball16: Godinez
h3budda: Jautegui
blenderhd: Buday

Who is your favorite chalky value play?

eys819: Cruz
Moneyball16: Cruz
h3budda: Cruz
blenderhd: Cruz

Who is your favorite low-owned value play?

eys819: Witt
Moneyball16: Ontiveros
h3budda: Witt
blenderhd: Witt

Which fighter are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

eys819: Buday
Moneyball16: Witt
h3budda: Onama
blenderhd: Onama

Which fighter are you looking to avoid the most?

eys819: Godinez
Moneyball16: Godinez
h3budda: Jauregui
blenderhd: Nunes

Who do you think will have the highest score of the week?

eys819: Benitez
Moneyball16: Benitez
h3budda: Vera
blenderhd: Benitez

What are your thoughts about stacking the five-round fight in cash?

eys819: I would definitely stack this one with the fight favored to last five rounds and no good values on the slate. They should put up decent volume with the winner scoring well for their price, and the loser offering a nice floor due to the extra rounds.

Moneyball16: This is a stack in DK cash. This one is pretty likely to go the full five rounds, and there really aren’t many great value options on this slate. Simple as that.

h3budda: No doubt about it you have two strikers who have five rounds to work with. Both guys have decent output and a great floor in this matchup. The fight is -160 to go to a decision and should stay on the feet. There are no glaring mispriced fighters to go to instead of Cruz/stacking.

blenderhd: On a slate that features many fights at 3-1 odds, there aren’t any comfortable places to go down in salary for a safer floor. That’s why it’s imperative in cash games to lock in a mid-range main event that’s expected to go all five rounds.

What is the fight you are most likely to avoid and why?

eys819: Godinez/Hill – The fight is around -330 to end in a decision and Godinez is priced above $9k. While she did produce a tournament-winning score in her last match, she landed 8 takedowns to get there and I don’t see that happening again. Hill is unlikely to win, but I will have some exposure as she should have a decent floor if a losing fighter comes into play.

Moneyball16: Godinez/Hill – this fights easily the one most likely to go the full 5 rounds. The pace should be fine, but the most likely result is a decision win from Godinez as the 2nd most expensive fighter in the slate, where there are a ton of cheaper and better targets than her.

h3budda: Calvillo/Nunes – On a smaller slate I may not be fading this fight. There are stronger options around both ladies in this fight. Both are strikers who don’t grapple at a high rate. Calvillo could grapple and still not hit optimal in this matchup. I don’t think you can really fade any fight if you are playing multiple lineups this week.

blenderhd: Buday/Brzeski – There are several women’s fights much more likely to go to decision, but we get the benefit of lower ownership on them. This heavyweight fight stands to be popular, at least on the Buday side, but the field may not be weighing the possibility enough that it ends up as a slow-paced slog with a ton of clinching on the fence – and therefore producing an underwhelming score in a decision or late finish.

Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

eys819: Benitez – He is a -350 favorite in a fight heavily juiced to the under 1.5 rounds. Oddsmakers are telling us the most likely outcome here is an early finish for Benitez that should produce a good score for DFS, even for the highest-priced fighter on the slate.

Moneyball16: Onama – Despite only being 8600 he has similar win equity to any of the fighters more expensive than him. and at his price +210 1st round win odds and +125 KO odds are tremendous.

h3budda: Vera is the obvious spot as the best play on this slate. He is priced in the middle of the pack and has 5 rounds to work with. I hesitate to say Vera because if he gets a 3rd-5th round finish it may not score well enough. For that, I think Benetiz is the best pay-up play. He is facing a guy who cannot take a punch. There’s an early win bonus and multiple knock-down upside.

blenderhd: Onama – He’s -330 ML, -135 ITD and priced at 8600 only due to the line moving so heavily after the salaries were released by DraftKings. Based on the current odds, he should have been the $9200 fighter instead. Of course, he’ll be extremely popular (on par with Vera), but there are enough ways to get different elsewhere on a 13-fight slate. While I may be a bit under the field on Onama in large-field GPPs, totally passing up on the $600 arbitrage in salary would be a mistake.

What’s your hot take of the week?

eys819: Only one underdog wins on the entire card, and a losing fighter makes the optimal lineup.

Moneyball16: Gerald Meerschaert wins via decision and blows up a ton of Bruno Silva lineups

h3budda: Main event isn’t optimal. Landwehr halts the Onama hype train.

blenderhd: At least one female fighter makes the optimal lineup.

Image Credit: Imagn

Curious to know the tournament target? Want to know our analysts’ favorite fight? Below we answer lineup-building questions to help you prepare for the upcoming slate.

Who is your favorite fighter for optimal lineups?

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About the Author

  • John Britt (jmbwngfn)

  • One of the top baseball and hockey analysts in the DFS industry, John Britt is a family man hailing from St. Louis, Missouri. A proud graduate of the University of Missouri, John’s passion is hockey but he excels at multiple DFS sports. He has been nominated multiple times for awards for his written work in both baseball (best MLB series) and hockey (3x NHL Writer of the Year nominee) and is now the Lead Editor at RotoGrinders. John can be found on Twitter at the username JMBWngFn.

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