Monday Morning Sporer Report: Volume 1

by PSporer Last Updated 2015-04-14 16:47:36

Welcome to the Monday Morning Sporer Report, my new weekly RotoGrinders column. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days, so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).

Max Scherzer

Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins, which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.

This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the MMSR, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.

TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)

We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.

RANK	PITCHER	OPP	DAY	NOTE
1	Clayton Kershaw	SD	Mon	It’s a new look in SD, but the league’s best arm v. RHB (.531 OPS) is unlikely to be daunted
2	Max Scherzer	at PHI	Sat	The emergence of the change/curve combo v. LHB leaves me unconcerned about PHI’s 7 LH starters
3	Matt Harvey	at WAS	Thu	He’s obviously awesome regardless of opponent, but are we really scared of WAS in the current state?
4	Max Scherzer	NYM	Mon	NYM will be better offensively, but not enough to avoid them or even be all that worried w/stars
5	Stephen Strasburg	NYM	Wed	The Mets have escaped Strasburg’s full wrath in the NL East w/just 6 G v. him (PHI 11, ATL 17, and MIA 19)…
6	Jordan Zimmermann	NYM	Thu	…but not JZ’s: his 20 GS v. NYM is his high against a team & he owns ‘em (2.98 ERA, 3.8 K:BB in 118 IP)
7	Gio Gonzalez	at PHI	Fri	The Phillies have 7 LHBs in their starting lineup; sure they’ll bench some, but their bench is no good
8	Clayton Kershaw	at ARI	Sat	It was a rotten ’14 for ARI, but they did give Kershaw his 1 start w/>3 ER (1.7 IP, 7 ER); just 2 ER in the other 22 IP
9	Felix Hernandez	at OAK	Sat	OAK got 712 new players, but still none who can hit Felix: current A’s have a .525 OPS in 251 PA
10	Corey Kluber	at HOU	Mon	Even if they improve their .282 wOBA v. RHP (26th), they’re still gonna fan a lot; did so 14x v/Kluber last yr
11	Johnny Cueto	PIT	Mon	He’s owned PIT for his career (2.21 ERA in 179 IP); as they get better, he gets better v. them (1.54 ERA last 2 yrs)
12	David Price	MIN	Mon	A 5 ER dud in Sept. could mar Price’s work v. MIN last yr – 2.40 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 29% K, and 5.7 K:BB in 30 IP
13	Felix Hernandez	LAA	Mon	Felix heard something about LAA being a good offense last yr, but never saw it: 0.79 ERA, 38% K in 34 IP last yr
14	David Price	at CLE	Sat	C.Santana flips to his better side, but 4 of their best hitters are LH: Brantley, Moss, Kipnis, and Chisenhall
15	Zack Greinke	SD	Tue	Greinke is unlikely to be deterred by the influx of RHB (86-pt OPS platoon advantage)
16	Tyson Ross	SF	Sun	Major K upside protects against implosions, fanned at least 5 in all 4 GS v. LAD last yr (29 in 27 IP)
17	Chris Sale	MIN	Sun	Only rates so low because he missed all of Spring Training and could be limited IP-wise in this start
18	Zack Greinke	at ARI	Sun	One great and two good hitters (Goldy, Pollock, & Trumbo) shouldn’t scare you w/a stud like Greinke
19	Andrew Cashner	at LAD	Wed	Crushes RHB, but also handles LHB better than most righties setting him up nicely v. balanced LAD lineup
20	Alex Wood	NYM	Sun	NYM was abysmal v. LHP last year (.282 wOBA, 28th) and Cuddyer alone (.380 wOBA) won’t fix that
21	Jacob deGrom	at WAS	Wed	WAS is missing their top four hitters from ’14: Span, Rendon, and Werth to injury; LaRoche to free agency
22	Julio Teheran	at MIA	Mon	He’s never had much trouble w/MIA thanks in part to his mastery v. Stanton (2-for-21, 7 Ks)
23	Collin McHugh	at TEX	Fri	New approach says Ks from ’14 are real; at TEX no longer the auto-avoid of yesteryear (neutral on HRs)
24	Anibal Sanchez	MIN	Wed	Held 10th-best OPS against among SPs w/125+ IP last year (.599); smothers both sides w/a deep arsenal
25	Gerrit Cole	at CIN	Wed	We’re all waiting for the huge season, but more of the same wouldn’t be bad (career: 3.45 ERA, 23% K)
26	Mat Latos	ATL	Tue	You might not believe Latos’ Ks are going to return, but he’s still a must-start against ATL
27	James Shields	SF	Sat	Hey, it’s not the playoffs so he should breeze through this one, huh?
28	Michael Wacha	at CIN	Fri	Can’t wait to see him unleash that four-pitch arsenal on the league for a full season
29	Madison Bumgarner	at ARI	Mon	He wasn’t elite v. ARI last yr, but they were still dismal v. LHP; I think he atones for last OD (4 IP, 4 R)
30	Julio Teheran	NYM	Sat	NYM wasn’t much better v. RHP (.298 wOBA, 21st) and their WAS/ATL week 1 combo is really tough
31	Dallas Keuchel	CLE	Mon	CLE is unlikely to greatly improve upon their 24th-best wOBA v. LHP from last yr w/such a lefty-heavy lineup
32	Jeff Samardzija	MIN	Sat	Make no mistake, the MIN lineup isn’t a walkover, but I’ll still trust studs against them
33	Chris Tillman	at TB	Mon	A non-existent platoon split (14 OPS pts in favor of RHB) leaves him less susceptible to TB lineup shuffling
34	Dallas Keuchel	at TEX	Sun	Four of TEX’s five best hitters are lefties (Prince, Choo, Martin, and Odor)
35	Doug Fister	at PHI	Sat	No real platoon split in his career (38-pt OPS diff.) so LHB-heavy PHI shouldn’t be a major challenge

POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)

These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.

RANK	PITCHER	OPP	DAY	NOTE
1	Henderson Alvarez	ATL	Mon	Doesn’t get love in season-long or DFS despite big success; this lineup is laughably bad
2	Tom Koehler	ATL	Wed	Did his best work v. ATL last yr and now they’re markedly worse (2.77 ERA, 26 Ks in 26 IP)
3	Bartolo Colon	at ATL	Sun	Yeah, we’re going to see a lot of ATL in that opponent column this year
4	Jesse Hahn	TEX	Tue	DraftKings has him $100 cheaper than Josh Collmenter right now ($5,800)
5	Vance Worley	at MIL	Sat	MIL only added one more LHB to their righty-focused lineup; I buy a lot of Worley’s ’14 gains
6	Shane Greene	MIN	Thu	One of my favorite breakouts for ’15 is currently showing at $5700 at DK
7	Wade Miley	at NYY	Fri	Five lefty starters plus SHs Teix & Beltran (sliding yearly since ’10) have been down v. LHP
8	James Paxton	LAA	Fri	Only had 13 GS last yr, but 4 were v. LAA – 2.59 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 27% K rate in 24.3 IP
9	Henderson Alvarez	TB	Sun	Nothing in the AL is as bad as ATL for the NL, but TB is pretty punchless outside of Longo
10	Dan Haren	TB	Fri	His biggest issue (HRs) isn’t something the Rays do well (starting nine had 91 HRs in ’14)
11	Jon Niese	at ATL	Fri	ATL wasn’t awful v. LHP last yr, but lost three big reasons why: J.Upton, Gattis, and LaStella
12	Kendall Graveman	TEX	Thu	The groundball specialist won’t rack up Ks, but he could be 2015’s Henderson Alvarez
13	Josh Collmenter	SF	Mon	It’s mostly smoke & mirrors, but SF’s offense is unimpressive and no one will be using him
14	Nate Karns	at MIA	Sun	The strikeout pitcher should find some swing-and-miss in MIA (Stanton, Ozuna, Salty)
15	A.J. Burnett	at CIN	Thu	He owned CIN in ’12-13 w/PIT: 2.35 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 26% K rate in 61.3 IP

POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)

Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a
presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion.

RANK	PITCHER	OPP	DAY	NOTE
1	Jon Lester	at COL	Sat	Most carry “avoid” tag in Coors, but some might get cute w/ace-level arms – don’t do that; best pitch (curve) is neutralized + he could be on pitch count
2	Phil Hughes	at DET	Mon	A reverse platoon RHP who pounds the zone could be in for a long one v. pwr of DET; even a good effort could be DFS-lite by many H and few Ks
3	Jake Arrieta	at COL	Sun	Jumped to a new level in ’14, but he’s still not Coors-proof; in fact it was the site of his worst start last yr (5 IP/9 ER)
4	BOS RHP SPs	at PHI	M, W, Th	Everyone wants to pick on PHI (understandably), but their starting lineup features 7 LH bats; Buchholz, Porcello, & Masterson all struggle w/LHBs
5	MIL RHP SPs	COL	M-W	COL sucks on the road, but usually because of the adjustment from Coors; they’re starting on the road and the 3 MIL RHPs could be in for it here
6	R.A. Dickey	at NYY	Wed	The knuckler seems to need a warmup period. Since ’10 when Dickey became viable: 4.48 Apr ERA; 3.21 ERA in the other five months

TOP 10 BULLPENS

Bullpens are the most volatile part of the game year-to-year. Look at any breakout team and there’s a good chance their bullpen performance from the previous year has improved substantially. Obviously KC’s bullpen is a high profile example, but it’s hardly new. The small samples create a ton of variance such that this list of the top 10 bullpens could look absolutely hilarious by season’s end. I was more eye than science with this initial list because using just last year’s results isn’t especially useful.

RANK	TEAM	KEY COMPONENTS	NOTE
1	SD	Kimbrel, Benoit, Kelley	They just added Kimbrel to take the top spot and they still have Quackenbush and Maurer waiting in El Paso
2	KC	Holland, Davis, Herrera	Just because there is no way the super-trio repeats their 1.28 ERA from ’14 doesn’t mean they’ll be bad
3	NYY	Betances, Miller, Wilson	The splitting of the closer’s role doesn’t hurt us in DFS, if anything the efficiency of it could be a boon
4	PIT	Melancon, Watson, Bastardo	Liz, a former prospect of some note, could be their 2015 reclamation project
5	STL	Rosenthal, Walden, Siegrist	Rosenthal will be the latest example of reliever volatility with a huge ’15 after a 14% BB rate tanked his ’14
6	TB	Boxberger, Jepsen, Frieri	Still hold a top 10 spot pretty easily even with McGee on the shelf for a bit; Boxberger is a stud
7	CIN	Chapman, Diaz, Cingrani	It could be Chapman, me, and you and still crack the top 10 with ease
8	PHI	Papelbon, Giles, Diekman	Two of the five fastest reliever heaters are in this bullpen: Giles (97.2 MPH) and Diekman (96.9)
9	BAL	Britton, O’Day, Matusz	What they lack in strikeouts, they make up for in weak contact: groundballs and pop-ups
10	SEA	Rodney, Farquhar, Furbush	Depth is the key to this ‘pen with Medina, Wilhelmsen, and prospect C.Smith supporting their top three

BOTTOM 10 BULLPENS