Monday Morning Sporer Report: Volume 6
Welcome to the Monday Morning Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days, so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the MMSR, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Max Scherzer | at ARI | Mon | Allowed 5 ER in his last start thanks to a 3-R HR in the 8th, but that gave him 10 ER for the yr |
| 2 | Matt Harvey | at CHC | Wed | Can succeed so many different ways. Only 7 Ks in last 2, but still just a 2.08 ERA in the 13 IP |
| 3 | Johnny Cueto | SF | Thu | HRs are the only thing close to a flaw right now (6 HR in last 3), but that’s not SF’s game |
| 4 | Gerrit Cole | at CHC | Sat | His best start of the year was against CHC thanks in large part to their MLB-worst 26% K rate |
| 5 | Gerrit Cole | at PHI | Mon | PHI is far and away the worst v. RHP: 58 wRC+ is 13 pts worse than 29th-ranked TEX |
| 6 | Max Scherzer | at SD | Sat | Facing SD is no longer an auto-win due to revamped O, but it’s still a great venue |
| 7 | Clayton Kershaw | COL | Fri | Looking mortal is being confused w/“sucking”, but the skills are still saying he’s elite |
| 8 | Felix Hernandez | BOS | Sat | The Ks could be lighter (BOS is 2nd-best in K rate v. RHP) than usual, but he’s matchup proof |
| 9 | Chris Archer | at MIN | Sun | Not all 4 BB games are created equally; neither of Archer’s were really control issues |
| 10 | Zack Greinke | COL | Sat | Did you even realize he leads the NL in ERA and WHIP? Ks surging, too (7-6-7 in last 3) |
| 11 | Chris Archer | NYY | Tue | Despite 5 starts v. ALE, this is 1st v. NYY (owns them for career: 1.93 ERA, 0.76 WHIP in 42 IP) |
| 12 | Madison Bumgarner | at CIN | Fri | Didn’t top 4 Ks in first 3, but then 6-9-6-10 in his last 4 (in 27 IP) |
| 13 | Cole Hamels | PIT | Wed | The Pirates have a ridiculous 29% K rate against LHP this year; Ks haven’t been Hamels’ issue |
| 14 | Zack Greinke | MIA | Mon | We knew ATL/PHI would make NLE SPs fun, but MIA belongs there, too, w/24th wRC+ v. RHP |
| 15 | Jake Arrieta | PIT | Sun | Allowed 18 H in first 4 starts, but then 16 in his last 2 thanks to a .500 BABIP |
| 16 | James Shields | at SEA | Wed | Brilliant K rate (30%), but any mistake is getting smashed lately (7 HR in last 2 starts) |
| 17 | Jake Arrieta | NYM | Tue | Mets’ 20-11 record certainly isn’t because of high-octane offense (25th wRC+ v. RHP) |
| 18 | Corey Kluber | STL | Wed | Don’t panic right now; skills are still tremendous, some of this is plain bad luck |
| 19 | Chris Sale | at MIL | Tue | Crushed by MIN was surprising, but struggling v. DET certainly wasn’t; stay the course |
| 20 | David Price | at STL | Sat | K’d fewer than 5 just twice last year; has three such outings already this year incl. 1 last time |
| 21 | Collin McHugh | SF | Tue | Has fanned just 6 Mariners in 57 PA, but holds a 27% K rate in other 4 starts (99 PA) |
| 22 | Andrew Cashner | WAS | Fri | He really shouldn’t be 1-5 given how he’s pitched, but at least the Ks have been there (24%) |
| 23 | Jeff Samardzija | at MIL | Mon | Been great in 3 of last 4 and they’ve come against CLE and DET x2 (both top 10 v. RHP) |
| 24 | A.J. Burnett | at PHI | Tue | Both of Burnett’s opponents are in the bottom 10 of wOBA against righty curves… |
| 25 | A.J. Burnett | at CHC | Sun | …which is Burnett’s best pitch; Ks could bump up a bit, too, but 59% GB covers K deficiency |
| 26 | Garrett Richards | at BAL | Sun | BBs are more by design rather than a fundamental lack of control; getting better each start |
| 27 | Scott Kazmir | CWS | Sun | Not seeing the price jump you’d expect given his performance; CWS is 30th in wRC+ v. LHP |
| 28 | Michael Pineda | at KC | Fri | Would’ve loved to slot him higher after the huge 16-K effort, but KC just doesn’t K much |
| 29 | Jacob deGrom | at CHC | Mon | The only real knock on JdG v. last year is the drop in Ks with a 21% rate, down from 26%… |
| 30 | Jacob deGrom | MIL | Sat | …however, his 11% SwStr rate is 20th-best in MLB; this slate offers opp. to boost Ks big time |
| 31 | Danny Salazar | at TEX | Fri | Ks (37%) are more than covering for the HRs which remain present (1 per start) |
| 32 | Jon Lester | PIT | Sat | It’s coming along, since that 6 ER dud v. CIN: 7 ER in 4 starts (25.3 IP) & PIT flounders v. LHP |
| 33 | Lance Lynn | at CLE | Tue | Bounced back from his first bomb of the yr only to drop another 5 ER the start after |
| 34 | Shelby Miller | at CIN | Mon | Skills starting to come close to elite results: 24% K rate & 1.3 GB/FB rate in his last 4 |
| 35 | Bartolo Colon | MIL | Fri | He has 40 Ks and 1 BB this year; Phil Hughes might hold his K:BB MLB record for one year |
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Danny Salazar | at TEX | Fri | Venue no longer a total stayaway given depleted offense & architectural changes |
| 2 | Jake Odorizzi | at MIN | Fri | Twins offer Odorizzi a chance to continue K hot streak (24% K v. RHP) after 13 in last 2 |
| 3 | Mike Leake | SF | Sun | Ks will never be a consistent part of his gm, but he’s gone 7+ in ea. of last 5 starts |
| 4 | Chase Anderson | at PHI | Fri | Excelling on the road thus far: 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 6.0 K:BB ratio albeit just 2 starts |
| 5 | Alex Colome | at MIN | Sat | Just two 5 IP starts so far, but he will continue to stretch out and get more pitches |
| 6 | Rubby de la Rosa | WAS | Tue | Love the 25% K rate, but that was expected given his stuff; 6.5% BB rate is the treat |
| 7 | Jesse Chavez | CWS | Sat | Remember, he had an ERA below 3.00 through his first 16 starts |
| 8 | Jose Quintana | at MIL | Wed | 5.03 ERA keeps price lower, but 2.37 ERA in his last 3 says he’s turning it around |
| 9 | Edinson Volquez | at TEX | Tue | Busted a blister early in the 6 BB; assuming it’s healed, he’ll get back on track |
| 10 | Jon Niese | at CHC | Thu | He won’t take full advantage of CHC’s 28% K rate v. LHP, but he does have 5+ Ks in 3 of 4 |
| 11 | James Paxton | SD | Tue | Still working off that 2.7 IP/7 ER and it’ll take time (2.41 ERA and 18 Ks in last 18.7 IP) |
| 12 | Jeff Locke | at CHC | Fri | He hasn’t been as bad as 4.71 ERA; has 12 Ks in 8.7 IP v. CHC so far this year, too |
| 13 | Drew Hutchison | at HOU | Thu | It’s a GPP gamble only because he seems equally likely to drop 10 Ks or allow 3 HRs |
| 14 | Archie Bradley | at PHI | Sat | We don’t know how limited he’ll be in his return, but PHI is always a consideration |
| 15 | Alfredo Simon | MIN | Tue | This is first opponent in the top 10 of K rate v. RHP & they’re 23rd in wRC+ v. RHP, too |
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion.
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Lance Lynn | DET | Sun | Lynn is scary in DFS because his duds come w/out warning v. good or bad opposition |
| 2 | Corey Kluber | STL | Wed | It’s not only bad luck driving his .364 BABIP, but skills remain elite so I’m not worried |
| 3 | Dallas Keuchel | TOR | Fri | Being on this list doesn’t mean I expect the landmine, but TOR is league best v. LHP |
| 4 | Carlos Carrasco | STL | Tue | STL is always tough: 4th-highest in wRC+ and 3rd-lowest in K%; better options avail. |
| 5 | Michael Wacha | at CLE | Thu | Poor record shades CLE opinion, but they’re top 10 in wRC+ & bottom 5 in K% v. RHP |
| 6 | Lance Lynn | at CLE | Tue | Poor record shades CLE opinion, but they’re top 10 in wRC+ & bottom 5 in K% v. RHP |
| 7 | Jeff Samardzija | at OAK | Sun | Similar to CLE as wretched record covers high quality O v. RHP (116 wRC+, 17% K) |
| 8 | Michael Pineda | at KC | Fri | I could see a solid 6-7 IP effort, but the Ks will be light making him a tough DFS play |
| 9 | Sonny Gray | BOS | Wed | The 29% K rate in his last 4 could be changing tune on Gray (orig. expected ~18-20% K) |
| 10 | Mike Leake | ATL | Mon | Don’t think much of ATL offense, but they don’t K (15.6% v. RHP is lowest in MLB) |
TOP 10 BULLPENS
Bullpens are the most volatile part of the game year-to-year. Look at any breakout team and there’s a good chance their bullpen performance from the previous year has improved substantially. Obviously KC’s bullpen is a high profile example, but it’s hardly new. The small samples create a ton of variance such that this list of the top 10 bullpens could look absolutely hilarious by season’s end. I was more eye than science with this initial list because using just last year’s results isn’t especially useful.
| RK | TEAM | LAST | KEY COMPONENTS | NOTE |
| 1 | KC | 1 | Holland, Davis, Herrera | OK, maybe they can keep 2014 up. In fact, they are somehow better |
| 2 | NYY | 2 | Miller, Betances, Rogers | This pen is covering the downside of the non-Pineda starters so far |
| 3 | HOU | 5 | Gregerson, Neshek, Sipp | Keuchel’s great, but the pen is driving their 20-12 record |
| 4 | LAD | 4 | Garcia, Baez, Nicasio | The 1.85 ERA is third-best in MLB without a single pitch from Kenley Jansen |
| 5 | PIT | 6 | Melancon, Watson, Bastardo | Melancon now has 8 straight scoreless outings returning this pen to a force |
| 6 | STL | 3 | Rosenthal, Siegrist, Maness | Walden loss is substantial, but they’ve got reinforcements to cover |
| 7 | NYM | 7 | Familia, Montero, Torres | Familia being used a lot, but easy to understand why: 33% K, 5% BB, & 60% GB |
| 8 | BAL | UR | Britton, O’Day, Matusz | The concern for Britton was Ks after 22% last year, up to 34% so far this yr |
| 9 | WAS | UR | Storen, Barrett, Roark | Treinen’s development could given them a devastating pen |
| 10 | SF | UR | Casilla, Romo, Affeldt | Romo is back & non-closer usage is smart as biggest fires often come in the 8th |
BOTTOM 10 BULLPENS
| RK | TEAM | LAST | KEY COMPONENTS | NOTE |
| 1 | TEX | 1 | Feliz, Kela, Tolleson | Kela is the only impressive asset as Feliz has been inconsistent |
| 2 | MIN | 2 | Perkins, Fien, Duensing | Their 15% K rate is league’s worst, almost half of LAD’s 29% mark |
| 3 | BOS | 4 | Uehara, Mujica, Tazawa | Uehara is still elite, but no other contributor has a 25% K rate (61 RPs >25%) |
| 4 | COL | 8 | Axford, Betancourt, Friedrich | With Ottavino done for the year, I’m not sure how they get off this list all year |
| 5 | ARI | 5 | Reed, Ziegler, Chafin | At least Chafin is developing into a solid option |
| 6 | CIN | 3 | Chapman, Diaz, Cingrani | Either excellent or horrible arms only (4 at 2.70 ERA or better; 4 at 8.44+) |
| 7 | DET | UR | Soria, Nesbitt, Hardy | This pen just doesn’t miss bats, even with their two real assets (Soria/Nesbitt) |
| 8 | ATL | UR | Grilli, Martin, Johnson | Grilli dealing w/some back spasms; not sure I trust Martin & Johnson much |
| 9 | CLE | UR | Allen, Shaw, McAllister | Allen’s .484 BABIP will come down, but what’s with the 15% BB rate |
| 10 | OAK | UR | Clippard, Scribner, Otero | Did you expect this, of all things, to be their weakness? Doolittle close to rehab |
MARKET CORRECTIONS
We all know that sometimes stats can be misleading. Just because a pitcher has that stat on his ledger doesn’t mean that it will maintain, for better or worse. Sometimes a guy is pitching much better than a number or numbers will suggest and other times it’s the reverse where a guy is outrunning his true skills and seems primed for a regression. Here are four numbers I’m expecting a correction on soon.
James Shields’ 25% HR/FB rate: The 30% K rate is supported by a 14% SwStr rate, but why so many homers? Seven in his last two games has pushed his HR/FB rate through roof. Even if HRs are going to be a season-long issue, the rate will come way down from here.
Collin McHugh’s 21% K rate: Some were cautious about his 25% K rate from last year, but his stuff supports it and I expect he will move closer to last year’s mark as he continues thanks to an improved SwStr rate; he’s the real deal.
Cole Hamels’ 11% BB rate: His career high thus far is an 8.6% mark from his rookie season. He’s lived between 5.5% and 7.1% since then making this current mark somewhat fishy. Unless there’s a hidden injury, we should see a substantial drop in the near future.
Jon Niese’s 1.95 ERA: Great groundball rate (60%) and he doesn’t walk many guys (6.6%), but his strikeouts are unimpressive (15%) and that 80% LOB will eventually drop toward his 72% career mark.