Monday Morning Sporer Report: Volume 7
Welcome to the Monday Morning Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days, so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected. (EDITOR’S NOTE: Look for the Bullpen sections to return next week!).
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the MMSR, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
| Num | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Scherzer | PHI | Fri | Surprised there hasn’t been more hype, but I guess it’s bc he was expected to be an ace |
| 2 | Matt Harvey | at PIT | Sat | His worst start was a 6 IP/4 ER outing v. MIA in which he still logged 7 Ks and won |
| 3 | Corey Kluber | CIN | Sat | Last week: “Don’t panic right now; skills are still tremendous, some of this is plain bad luck” |
| 4 | Gerrit Cole | NYM | Fri | He’s better across-the-board and the 2.40 ERA looks legitimate; NYM 26th in wRC+ v. RHP |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | at HOU | Tue | GB% drop more than offset by K% surge which has been driven by improvement to his slider |
| 6 | Matt Harvey | STL | Mon | StL is never an easy matchup, but does any opponent really scare you w/Harvey? |
| 7 | Corey Kluber | at CWS | Mon | One of eight SPs w/two or more 10+ K games (Scherzer & Salazar lead w/3 each) |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | TB | Sun | Most of GB% loss has gone to pop-ups which are essentially guaranteed outs |
| 9 | Clayton Kershaw | at SF | Thu | He had 7 BB in his first six starts, but then 7 in his last two; blip or panic? I vote blip. |
| 10 | Zack Greinke | SD | Fri | Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER, six starts of 0-1 ER; and he still won’t be most $$ on Fri. |
| 11 | Chris Sale | CLE | Mon | CLE is no walkover, but Sale isn’t a 5.09 ERA guy so I’m not running from him v. anyone |
| 12 | Chris Sale | MIN | Sat | He took that 8 ER massacre at MIN, but that was 1 more than he allowed in 21 IP v. them in ’14 |
| 13 | Chris Archer | OAK | Fri | You threw a hissy fit after the 1st inn. of start v. NYY, didn’t you? Ended at 7 IP/2 ER, 8 Ks |
| 14 | Michael Pineda | TEX | Fri | KC is at a level where you don’t knock guys for getting hit by them |
| 15 | David Price | HOU | Thu | Ks are down, HRs are up; the former could get a nice fix, but the latter could take a hit v. HOU |
| 16 | James Shields | CHC | Tue | CHC is essentially HOU of NL w/big K%, but big power potential, too; Shields has one 0-HR gm |
| 17 | Felix Hernandez | at TOR | Fri | Nobody in TOR is safe and at his cost it’s probably just best to stayaway even in cash games |
| 18 | Dallas Keuchel | OAK | Wed | 4 ER in ea. of his last two v. two top 10 LH teams; OAK’s 69 wRC+ is third-worst in MLB |
| 19 | Shelby Miller | MIL | Sat | Not overwhelming K or BB rates, but you can see the domination when you watch him |
| 20 | Jordan Zimmermann | PHI | Fri | Since the 2.3 IP/7 ER shellacking at BOS: 2.58 ERA in six starts w/6+ IP in each |
| 21 | A.J. Burnett | NYM | Sat | Over his head w/a 1.38 ERA, but the Mets are unlikely to start any regression for him |
| 22 | Scott Kazmir | at TB | Fri | Lot of good going on in Kaz’s first eight, but he has 2+ BB in six of them |
| 23 | Michael Wacha | at NYM | Tue | Finally showed a glimpse of his K upside w/7 in last outing; lots to like even w/out Ks |
| 24 | Jason Hammel | at SD | Tue | Maintaining his ’14 K rate (22%) while halving his BB rate to 3% |
| 25 | Jeff Samardzija | MIN | Fri | A lot of his 10.4 H/9 is team defense-influenced; 2B change should help start turning the tide |
| 26 | Stephen Strasburg | PHI | Sun | PHI is terrible offensively; the overall fear surrounding him might make him a sneaky zig play |
| 27 | Johnny Cueto | at KC | Tue | Really tough to invest in studs against KC right now; even if they go well, will they get any Ks? |
| 28 | Trevor Bauer | CIN | Sun | K upside mitigates some of the ERA concern (3.67) as he can still score big in a 6 IP/3 ER effort |
| 29 | Jake Odorizzi | at ATL | Wed | His evolution has been impressive to watch; reached the seventh in all eight starts |
| 30 | Danny Salazar | at CWS | Thu | Roughed up for the first time this year, but K & BB rates have been elite; HRs remain an issue |
| 31 | Tyson Ross | CHC | Wed | Hasn’t fanned fewer than 5 since his debut; gets HR-capable CHC in HR-stifling Petco, too |
| 32 | Rick Porcello | LAA | Fri | A BOS arm in the top 35?? 2.84 ERA in last five with 28 Ks and 4.0 K:BB ratio in 31.7 IP over last 5 |
| 33 | Jacob deGrom | STL | Thu | Rocky finish to Apr has skewed perception some, been great in May: 3.00 ERA, 20 Ks in 18 IP |
| 34 | Carlos Carrasco | CIN | Fri | The .359 BABIP isn’t entirely the D’s fault as some mechanical inconsistencies have hurt CC |
| 35 | Noah Syndergaard | at PIT | Fri | The stuff isn’t in question at all, just a matter of how consistent the youngster will be |
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
| Num | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Odorizzi | at ATL | Wed | Doesn’t rely on Ks for success so GBs may be in order for contact-heavy ATL |
| 2 | Danny Salazar | at CWS | Thu | The K upside is just too rich, even with the prevalent longball problems |
| 3 | Rick Porcello | LAA | Fri | A 20% K rate is his career-best, though his 43% GB rate is easily a career-low, too |
| 4 | Noah Syndergaard | at PIT | Fri | Sitting on the 97-98 MPH heat? Watch out for the nasty low-80s hammer curve |
| 5 | Clay Buchholz | TEX | Thu | Has cash-game skills (27% K, 4.2 K:BB) with GPP volatility (3 night-ending duds) |
| 6 | Chase Anderson | at MIA | Wed | Stifling the oppositon since the 5 ER v. COL: 0.98 ERA in 18.3 IP, though just 12 Ks |
| 7 | Drew Hutchison | LAA | Tue | They have a 72 wRC+ (29th) even with Trout; imagine what it is the nights he’s 0-4 |
| 8 | Rubby de la Rosa | at MIA | Mon | Ks cover a lot in DFS which is why Rubby has intrigue even w/a 4.50 ERA |
| 9 | Rubby de la Rosa | CHC | Sat | He’s fanned 5+ in all but one start and gone into the seventh in 4 of his last 5 |
| 10 | Carlos Martinez | at NYM | Wed | When we want someone to be good, we give too much credence to their good starts |
| 11 | Ubaldo Jimenez | at MIA | Fri | Skills support real success, but it’s always fragile given his awful mechanics |
| 12 | Jesse Hahn | at HOU | Wed | Probably pitching in better in May despite worse results; stick with him |
| 13 | Alfredo Simon | HOU | Fri | Pitching a lot like he did last yr; can have a big K day if team allows (and HOU allows!) |
| 14 | Jorge de la Rosa | PHI | Thu | He’s had success in Coors for years, plus the improved K% has some legitimacy |
| 15 | Kyle Lobstein | MIL | Mon | MIL still holds 2nd-worst wRC+ (57) & K% (26%) v. LH, let’s see if Lob can get some Ks |
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion.
| Num | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Cueto | at KC | Tue | 4th in wRC+ at 110, but best at making contact making them more dangerous than ever |
| 2 | James Shields | at LAD | Sun | Dodgers might be approach COL in COL levels of avoidance, even w/star arms |
| 3 | Andrew Cashner | at LAD | Fri | Last five: 3.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 31 Ks in 33 IP… 0-5 record |
| 4 | Collin McHugh | at DET | Fri | Handled a tough TOR tm (7 IP/2 ER, 9 Ks), but it’s an unnecessary risk in DET |
| 5 | Lance Lynn | at KC | Fri | 1 ER in 13.3 IP v. the 3rd (DET) and 6th (CLE) tm in wRC+, now gets the 4th in KC |
| 6 | Michael Wacha | at KC | Sun | He’s been allowing a ton of contact this year which adds a level of fear here |
| 7 | Cole Hamels | at COL | Mon | Could escape if early HR issues are past him (7 HR in first 3; 1 HR in last 5) |
| 8 | Anibal Sanchez | MIL | Tue | 1.66 ERA v. MIN in 21.7 IP; 7.06 ERA v. everyone else in 29.3 IP |
| 9 | Cole Hamels | at WAS | Sat | Fun week for Hamels, huh? |
| 10 | Wei-Yin Chen | SEA | Wed | Not exactly a stud, but pitching really well; SEA mashes LHP (.204 ISO) so be careful |
MARKET CORRECTIONS
We all know that sometimes stats can be misleading. Just because a pitcher has that stat on his ledger doesn’t mean that it will maintain, for better or worse. Sometimes a guy is pitching much better than a number or numbers will suggest and other times it’s the reverse where a guy is outrunning his true skills and seems primed for a regression. Here are four numbers I’m expecting a correction on soon.
Wei-Yin Chen’s 6.8 H/9: For his career he’s allowed about a hit per inning and it’s way down this year despite no real change in his skills. His strikeout rate is up a bit, but his walk rate has nearly doubled while home runs remain an issue (1.3 HR/9). More base runners will start to reach base and when they do, those homers will become painful and send his 2.53 ERA skyward.
Nick Martinez’s everything: There is serious performance degradation from his second to third time through the order. He has a .471 OPS-against the second time around and it jumps .835 the third time through, but he isn’t yet paying for it. He isn’t terrible as a major league arm, but he’s a flimsy DFS asset with an awful strikeout rate and a lot of regression coming.
Gio Gonzalez’s 4.25 ERA: Gonzalez’s 51% GB rate is actually being punished by the wretched defense behind him as he carries a .387 BABIP despite an 18% Hard-Hit rate (3rd-best in MLB; league avg. 29%). It isn’t unreasonable to surmise that some weak grounders are getting through and extending innings for Gonzalez. It will get better. His strikeout and walk rates are completely in line with career norms. He should be at least a run better ERA-wise.
Tyson Ross’ 1.53 WHIP: The walk rate is obviously an issue thus far at 13%, but he should be allowing fewer hits just based on how he’s pitching. The 63% GB rate is elite and should be netting better than a .339 BABIP. He was .291 last year and .307 for his career, dipping to either would represent a healthy drop, but it wouldn’t be unrealistic to see an even bigger drop with this number of grounders and a premium strikeout rate to limit contact in the first place.