Monday Morning Sporer Report: Week 8
Welcome to the Monday Morning Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the MMSR, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
TOP 35 STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | ATL | Tue | He might “only” be a high-2.00s rest of way, but that doesn’t mean he’s broken in any way |
| 2 | Madison Bumgarner | ATL | Sun | His 2.84 ERA carries a little more juice when you consider 3 of 9 starts are v. LAD |
| 3 | Gerrit Cole | MIA | Wed | MIA offer chances to keep weird K pattern going: 4, 6, 8, and 10 in hist last 4; time for 12? |
| 4 | Matt Harvey | MIA | Fri | MIA gets Cole-Harvey in back-to-back gms w/an off-day in between; have fun w/that |
| 5 | Max Scherzer | at CHC | Wed | Has K’d fewer than 6 just once w/8+ in six of his nine starts; CHC’s 26% K rate is tied for highest |
| 6 | Cole Hamels | COL | Fri | COL doing their usual road thing w/third-worst wOBA on road v. LH & MLB-high 33% K rate |
| 7 | David Price | at OAK | Tue | LHPs are a big reason for OAK’s record as a .069 ISO has left them w/a 69 wRC+ |
| 8 | Zack Greinke | ATL | Wed | The drop in K% is a lot easier to digest when he’s not giving up anything (1.48 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) |
| 9 | Corey Kluber | at SEA | Thu | Has 37 Ks in his last three starts or as many as 34 ERA-qualified SPs have all season (min. 34 IP) |
| 10 | Madison Bumgarner | at MIL | Tue | A career-best 5.0 K:BB ratio v. RHB leaves MadBum less susceptible v. righty-loaded MIL |
| 11 | Felix Hernandez | at TB | Wed | His 2.67 ERA in four May starts includes outings v. two top 10 hitting tms v. RH (OAK & TOR) |
| 12 | Jacobe deGrom | PHI | Tue | PHI has been the punching bag we expected; JdG has allowed 3 ER to them in 20 career IP |
| 13 | Chris Archer | SEA | Wed | Has 4 BB in three of his five May starts, but also 33 Ks in the 27.7 IP and only one bad outing |
| 14 | James Shields | PIT | Fri | One HR-free outing all yr is alarming, but MLB-best 32% K rate covers a lot of those mistakes |
| 15 | A.J. Burnett | at SD | Thu | MLB’s ERA leader has gone 7 IP in each of last four; current K & BB rates match his ’12-‘13 ones |
| 16 | Sonny Gray | NYY | Fri | Modest effort at HOU, but was bouncing back brilliantly before a comebacker got him |
| 17 | David Price | at LAA | Sun | LAA is better v. LH compared to their awful work v. RH, but still not a scary lineup |
| 18 | Dallas Keuchel | CWS | Sat | Pitching at a level where even his “bad” outings won’t kill you (like Monday’s 8 IP/4 ER) |
| 19 | Shelby Miller | at SF | Thu | SF is surprisingly strong v. RH this year, but they require lots of hits & Miller isn’t allowing any |
| 20 | Garrett Richards | SD | Wed | Three BB in last two (5%) after 16 in first five starts (13%); it’s coming together |
| 21 | Tyson Ross | PIT | Sat | Had 2+ BB in each of his first nine starts before just 1 on Monday; Ks remain excellent |
| 22 | Danny Salazar | at SEA | Sun | Finally had first HR-free outing, but they’re still a threat to ruin any outing in a blink and… |
| 23 | Danny Salazar | TEX | Sun | …HRs will keep him outside of the top 20 until he shows he can contain them at all |
| 24 | Jose Quintana | at HOU | Fri | MIN stalled a nice five-start streak for Q, but it was mostly one bad inning (4 ER in 4th inn.) |
| 25 | Jake Odorizzi | at BAL | Sun | O’s have really lacked the punch we saw last year, espec. in May v. RH (28th wOBA; 6th K%) |
| 26 | Carlos Carrasco | TEX | Wed | The 4.74 ERA likely depresses his price, but he’s pitching much better than that raw number |
| 27 | Francisco Liriano | at SD | Fri | Bounced back brilliantly from MIN dud bc he just has those outings some times |
| 28 | Trevor Bauer | at SEA | Fri | The Ks makes him DFS gold, but pitching into 8th in ea. of his three shows elite upside |
| 29 | Jordan Zimmermann | at CHC | Tue | His last six: 2.54 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 19% K rate, and 4.8 K:BB ratio in 39 IP; Ks could jump here, too |
| 30 | Jake Arrieta | KC | Fri | Tough matchup, but he thrives v. better teams (1.98 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, & 95 Ks in 95.3 IP since ’14) |
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Rubby de la Rosa | MIL | Fri | MIL is least-equipped to exploit his .890 OPS v. LHB w/just 1 lefty regular (Lind) |
| 2 | Clay Buchholz | at MIN | Tue | MIN offense is better than most realize, but it’s more v. LH; third-highest K% v. RHP |
| 3 | Drew Hutchison | at MIN | Sun | Maddeningly volatile in Apr, but 2.36 ERA, 27% K, & 7.0 K:BB ratio in 27 IP over last 4 |
| 4 | Wade Miley | at TEX | Fri | Almost inverse ERA in May: 8.62 in Apr; 2.60 in May incl. 7 IP/2 ER, 7 K v. TEX on 5/19 |
| 5 | Shane Greene | at LAA | Sat | Memorial Day shows hi & lo all in one start: 5 shutout IP w/4 Ks; 4 ER in ugly 6th inn. |
| 6 | Mike Wright | CWS | Thu | Newfound velo (96 MPH four-seamer) requires attention; CWS is punchless v. RH |
| 7 | Chase Anderson | MIL | Sun | Dodging proverbial raindrops w/10 H v. StL, but 5 ER in May despite 4 road starts |
| 8 | Alex Colome | SEA | Tue | A GPP gamble at best as he’s been wildly inconsistent early on, but showing promise |
| 9 | Buck Farmer | at LAA | Thu | Should be dirt-cheap coming up from AAA; LAA has been awful v. RHP all year |
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion.
POTENTIAL LANDMINES | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Michael Wacha | LAD | Sat | Even if he does survive the brutal O, it’s unlikely to come w/enough Ks to justify risk |
| 2 | Michael Pineda | KC | Wed | Generally fearful of KC, but they also pummeled him for 10 H two starts ago |
| 3 | Jake Arrieta | KC | Fri | KC just avg v. RH breakers could open door for strong start; consider zigging w/him |
| 4 | Johnny Cueto | at WAS | Sat | Too much of a health concern to feel great about in DFS this week |
| 5 | Julio Teheran | at LAD | Tue | Back-to-back gems (1.42 ERA, 13 Ks in last 12.7 IP) is rewarded w/a trip to LA |
| 6 | Shelby Miller | at SF | Thu | SF is quietly third in wRC+ v. RHP (110) as a contact-heavy tm that nickels & dimes SPs |
| 7 | Julio Teheran | at SF | Sun | Teheran’s issue has been HRs (1.6 HR/9) making this one less scary given tm and venue |
| 8 | Tom Koehler | at NYM | Sat | Season #s might say he’s a worthy gamble, but not away from home: 6.53 road ERA |