Monday Night Football Picks: Giants vs. Chiefs Odds & Predictions
The Kansas City Chiefs are desperate for a win after starting the season 3-4. They shouldn’t have a problem getting a victory against the 2-5 New York Giants in Kansas City, but the more important question, for sports bettors, is whether the Chiefs will cover the spread. Follow along as NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Giants vs. Chiefs odds and gives you his free pick for Monday Night Football!
Giants vs. Chiefs Odds
| Giants Odds | +10.5 |
| Chiefs Odds | -10.5 |
| Over/Under | 52.5 |
| Date | Monday, Nov 1 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
The New York Giants and the Kansas City Chiefs will conclude Week 8 of the NFL season on Monday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium. In this prime time showdown, oddsmakers are expecting a relatively easy win for Kansas City, pricing the Chiefs as 10.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup, along with other NFL betting tips, to see where there’s value at sportsbooks ahead of Monday Night Football.
New York Giants (+10.5)
The Giants have been one of the most unpredictable teams in the NFL this fall. New York lost each of their first three contests to mediocre opponents—the Denver Broncos, Washington Football Team, Atlanta Falcons. In Week 4, the Giants looked awful for the first three quarters against the New Orleans Saints, but overcame an 11-point fourth quarter deficit to win in overtime at the Superdome. The Giants were subsequently trounced in Week 5 and Week 6 by the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams, but then defeated the Carolina Panthers by 22 points last Sunday.
Volatility is expected from teams with strong talent at skill positions, but little talent on the line. Per Pro Football Focus, the Giants do not have a single offensive lineman that has graded higher than 36th at their position. Daniel Jones is an above average quarterback from a clean pocket, but struggles mightily under pressure. In 2020, he had an abysmal 55.7 passer rating when under duress. That being said, Kansas City has only eight sacks this season. Jones should have a decent performance in this contest, though he is always a risky wager for bettors, due to his extreme variance from week to week.
Defensively, the Giants are no less volatile. This defense has surrendered 27 points to the Broncos, 30 points to the Football Team, 44 points to the Cowboys, and 38 points to the Rams. However, they have also held the Falcons and Panthers to 17 points or less. This group even limited the Saints to 21 points. Patrick Mahomes is seemingly an intimidating matchup on Monday Night Football, but the young phenom has been less than stellar in 2021. The larger issue for New York could be finding a way to stop the run. The Giants enter play this evening allowing 4.4 yards-per-carry.
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
Mahomes ascended to God-like status after a record breaking first few years in the NFL, including multiple trips to the Super Bowl and a contract extension that made him the highest paid player in the league. Yet, Mahomes has been downright reckless with the football this season. His nine interceptions rank 29th amongst qualified signal callers. He still ranks sixth in total passing yards and fourth in QBR, but has only four touchdowns against five interceptions across his last three games. His poor play cannot be blamed on an offensive line that features some of the NFL’s premier big men up front—Orlando Brown Jr., Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith. Neither is a lack of weapons an excuse when Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are his two primary pass catchers. Simply, this offense’s biggest weakness at this point is their signal caller. Mahomes draws a favorable matchup against a New York defense that ranks 20th in opponent passer rating, but it is no guarantee that he will be able to take advantage tonight.
Kansas City is arguably the worst defensive team in the league. This unit has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 13 touchdowns and a 104.0 passer rating through seven games. The Chiefs are also allowing the fourth-most yards-per-carry of any defense in the NFL. Chris Jones is having a good, but not great season on the defensive line. Juan Thornhill has played reasonably well at safety. Other than those two players, this side of the ball is completely devoid of talent. The Giants are far from elite offensively, but it is difficult to imagine the Chiefs making life difficult for any offense right now.
Giants vs. Chiefs Picks
How long will bettors continue to be charged the Mahomes-tax at sportsbooks? Kansas City enters play below .500 with one of the worst defenses in the league. Even their allegedly elite offense has significant question marks with the recent play of Mahomes. Following a Week 7 loss to the Tennessee Titans in which the Chiefs scored only three points, it is unjustifiable to expect them to cover more than two scores on the spread. It is rarely fun betting on bad teams playing away from home, but New York is poised to do one of the least sexy things in all of sports—cover the spread while losing outright.
PICK: Giants +10.5 (-110)
Image Credit: Imagn