Monkey Knife Fight NBA Finals Strategy: Game 3
Welcome to the weekly Monkey Knife Fight picks article, in which we are going to be doing all the research you need to make the best decisions possible.
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Now, let’s get to the article.
First Prop: TOR @ GS: 2/2 Rapid Fire
Stephen Curry vs Kawhi Leonard (+2.5): Total Points: Generally, the first thing I do when looking at NBA props on MKF is to check where they are in comparison to Vegas odds. Looking at Vegas odds, Kawhi is currently set at 30.5 points with a -121 line on the under (meaning you have to place $121 to win 100), while Steph’s line is currently set at 31.5 points with a -134 line on the over. Just looking at the lines without the juice, it would appear that Kawhi is the right choice, but when we incorporate the juice and recent performance, Steph is the clear choice. The game is being played in Golden State and last game was the first game that Steph failed to reach 33 points in the last 7 games. If Klay is unable to suit up tonight, this would be an even bigger bump to Steph, but I think regardless, Curry will win this prop.
DeMarcus Cousins (+1.5) vs Draymond Green: Total Rebounds: The Vegas odds for both Draymond and Boogie are as such: Draymond Under 10.5 Rebounds -139 and Boogie over 8.5 rebounds -125. With heavy juice on the under for Draymond and heavy juice on the over for Boogie with a free half rebound, I’m rolling with Cousins. Draymond has been consistently getting double-digit boards this series, but Boogie is going to be stealing a whole lot of boards from him. Additionally, with Boogie playing a full allotment of minutes, he’s a lock for 10 boards here. Just take Boogie and move on.
Second Prop: TOR @ GS: 2/3 Rapid Fire
Stephen Curry vs Kawhi Leonard (+2.5): Total Points: This is the same as in the first prop. See above for analysis.
Danny Green (+.5) vs Kyle Lowry: Total 3 Pointers Made: While there isn’t a Vegas prop for this, I’m rolling with Green because of the tiebreaker in this prop. During this series, Green and Lowry are throwing up the same amount of shots from behind the arc (12 total each). Over the course of the season, Green shot .455 from beyond the arc, while Lowry only shot .347. With a volatile category like 3-pointers, I almost always roll with the guy who owns the tiebreaker when the two players project the same. Take Green.
Draymond Green vs Andre Iguodala (+4.5): Total Assists: Looking at Vegas odds, Green is currently set at over 8.5 assists with -110 juice, while Iggy is set at 4.5 Assists at -162. When taking the juice into account, Green is the clear favorite here. Green has been a triple double machine during these playoffs, and he has 9 or more assists over the last 4 games and is averaging near 11 during that time. With this game being played in GS, it gives him a bit of a bump, and without Durant in the offense, the offense runs through him quite a bit. Pick Green.
Third Prop: TOR @ GS: 2/2 Over/Under
Draymond Green: Over/Under 10.5 Rebounds: Looking at the Vegas rebounds totals for Draymond, he is currently set at an under 10.5 at -139. With the heavy juice on the under here, taking the under is the obvious bet. While Draymond has had 10 rebounds in each of the last 2 games, Boogie is eating into his board productions, and I’m expecting Draymond to end in the single digit range. Additionally, with this game being played in Golden State, there is a decent chance of a blowout here, which would eat into Draymond’s rebound equity. Take the under and move on.
Kawhi Leonard: Over/Under 30.5 points: Looking at Vegas, Kawhi is currently pegged at under 30.5 points -121. Yes, Kawhi did just have 34 points in the last game, but prior to that, he only exceeded 30 points once in the last 4 games. This game is being played over in Golden State and that will likely be a downgrade for Kawhi. He’s averaging under 30 points per game in the last 10 games and will likely end up in the 20s for this game even if it stays close. Take the under here.
Good luck on your props today, and if you don’t see them up on MKF, check back later. We will try and keep these up all day (they should only change because of injury news). If any of these props do get taken down, we will try and get a new one up in this article as soon as we can.
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