Monkey Knife Fight NBA Strategy: Monday, March 18th
Welcome to the weekly Monkey Knife Fight picks article, in which we are going to be doing all the research you need to make the best decisions possible.
If you haven’t checked out Monkey Knife Fight before, it’s a prop-based fantasy sports website with a variety of props contests you can enter. Unlike other articles here on RotoGrinders, we aren’t just giving you the research — we are giving you recommended picks. Now, let’s get to the article.
First Prop: DET at CLE: 2/2 Over/Under
Currently, this prop features a 2.55x payout with the over/under for Andre Drummond set at 17.5 points and the over/under set for Osman three-pointers set at 1.5.
Andre Drummond Over/Under 17.5 Points: Currently the SharpSide app and most Vegas lines have Drummond set at 16.5 points with heavy juice on the under (meaning more of the money is coming in on the under). While this may be a great matchup for Drummond, he has failed to put up over 17.5 points in four of his last five games. Take the under for Drummond points.
Cedi Osman Over/Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made: While we do not have a current prop up on the SharpSide app or most Vegas books, he has done significantly better than 1.5 3 points made recently. In the last 13 games, Osman has failed to reach multiple three-pointers made only three times. Additionally, the majority of these games, he has put up more than six three-point attempts, and if he shoots a mediocre percentage, he should easily get two. Overall, this is a great spot for Osman to hit the over.
UPDATE: With Blake Griffin now ruled out, the prop has changed. Below is my updated pick. With Griffiin gone and the easy matchup that should stay close, Drummond will be in for a bigger workload, so I am now rolling with the OVER of 17.5 points. As for the Osman O/U for rebounds, SharpSide currently set his projection at 5.5 with heavy juice on the under.
Second Prop: OKC vs MIA: 2/3 Rapid Fire
Currently, the payout for this is set at 1.57x, which isn’t terribly high, but there is some value in this as you only need to get two correct to win this prop
Steven Adams vs. Hassan Whiteside (+1.5) Rebounds: We don’t have a line for Whiteside rebounds, as it’s always kind of random how many minutes he will get, but a matchup against Adams makes me think that he will likely be in for a few extra. Regardless, he hasn’t failed to get seven rebounds in the last nine games and generally gets in the double digits. Adams on the other hand currently has a prop set at 10.5, with heavy juice on the under. To me, this is an obvious spot where you just take Whiteside getting the free 1.5 rebounds and move on.
Paul George vs. Dennis Schroder (+10.5) Points: Looking at the Sharpside app, we can clearly see that the edge here goes to George. George is currently pegged at 30.5 points with heavy juice on the over and Schroder is currently pegged at 18.5 points (a 12-point difference) with juice favoring neither the over or the under. Take George giving up the points.
Josh Richardson vs Kelly Olynyk (+.5) Three-Pointers Made: This one is a little bit tougher than the other two, but I still think there is a more obvious choice. On the season, the Thunder have struggled against opposing wings, so the clear nod here goes to Richardson, who could be in for a decent game, while Olynyk could always see his minutes taken away from him.
Third Prop: DEN vs. BOS: 2/2 Over/Under
Jamal Murray Over/Under 17.5 Points: To me this is an easy one. Over on the SharpSide app, Murray is currently pegged for 20.5 points; granted there is some pretty heavy juice on the under. Even with the juice, this puts is projection at around 19.5, which is too low considering what we are given. Take the over.
Marcus Morris Over/Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made: This one’s a little bit tougher than the points total for Murray, as we don’t have a prop to go off of on the SharpSide app, but this game should be close and Morris has been chucking a bit lately. Over his last five games, he has attempted six or more three-point attempts four times. Morris is a decent shooter from beyond the arc, and if the volume is going to be there (and it should in this low-spread game), this should be a pretty easy hit on the over. Take the over.
Good luck on your props today, and if you don’t see them up on MKF, check back later. We will try and keep these up all day (they should only change because of injury news). If any of these props do get taken down, we will try and get a new one up in this article as soon as we can.