MSI Day 2 - DraftKings: Slate 2
You know the drill. Let’s hop right into the second slate on DraftKings.
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Royal Never Give Up (-144) vs. G2 Esports (+119)
The latest drama going around eSports circles is that G2 may have come to the tournament unprepared. While I’m not buying into it as much as the twitterverse is, their play thus far does suggest a certain unpreparedness. Two games is two games and we certainly should not overreact to that, as it would be downright crazy to assume the worst with a team who was consistently strong all throughout the EU LCS.
Aside from trying to assess where these teams are at after such a small sample size, the most important thing is that if both RNG and G2 are playing their typical styles, we will have quite a barn burner on our hands, as they say. Both teams are known for their ability to fight and desire to do it often. When teams with this style face each other, it’s not at all uncommon for players on both teams to post big scores. Still, don’t expect a full game stack to get you anywhere. An early snowball from one side could lead to the other retreating from their aggressive style and being shut down in the kill category and would effectively eliminate any lineups with players from both teams. Always know the risk that comes with relying too heavily on the assumption that teams who love to fight will always repeatedly kill each other every time they play.
Players to Target
xiaohu ($7,200) – Hoping onto the train of G2 potentially having to come to the tournament unprepared, Perkz in particular hasn’t been his usual self. Granted, nobody looks like a star against Faker, but his play simply hasn’t yet been up to par. Especially not for a player of his caliber.
Mata ($5,300) – As most note, I generally don’t recommend supports all that often, simply because they can’t score points if their teammates don’t. That doesn’t change here, but man, Mata is awesome. Roster and watch him.
Trick ($5,800) – As usual, MVP Trick is our guy. Under $6k and still playing in a game with extremely high potential, even if G2 has shown us that they may not be their usual self in Shanghai.
SuperMassive (+398) vs. Counter Logic Gaming (-553)
In theory, this should be SuperMassive’s shot. Certainly that’s what the North American hater would tell you. Is NA the worst of the largest regions, as a whole? Indeed, sadly it is. Is CLG underrated on the international stage and going to handle SM with ease? Yep! Don’t let the internet sway you here. CLG has brought their A game to China and could be 2-0 if not for Darshan’s bizarre 1v5 engage in their first game last night. They’ve also been looking to fight, and doing it well. Their prices can be had at expensive, but manageable prices, so they should be targeted.
For SM, they’ve been simply there. Not poor or below standards, but still the clear and unchallenged worst team in the tournament. Turkey’s hope for a win at MSI is still the greatest in their two matches with CLG, but I just don’t see it. CLG aren’t the type to come into a game against a lesser opponent and give up any unnecessary advantages. Expect CLG to handle their business and for SM to hope for an upset later in the tournament.
Players to Target
Stixxay ($8,300) – We almost have to roster Stixxay purely for the fun of it. That’s not to say he isn’t a strong play in this game in the most practical sense, just that he’s been a wild ride since the North American playoffs, and I’m not about to get off the train against SuperMassive.
Darshan ($7,400) – Although the current state of League of Legends has pushed Darshan away from carry champions and split pushing, he’s still CLG’s big gun. He’s going to get less kills, but will be the engage in most fights and should rack up assists in CLG wins.
SK Telecom T1 (-750) vs. Flash Wolves (+505)
Yawn. It’s a bit painful that SKT is really this much better than everyone else outside of Korea. Maybe MSI should be all the other region winners against all of the LCK, just to further cement them as the greatest league. Flash Wolves are a legitimate team who are capable of making waves at MSI, but they won’t do it here.
The most important takeaway from this game is that DraftKings has set SKT’s prices a hair below that of CLG. I do think FW are enough of a challenge that SKT players contain higher upside overall than CLG, albeit with at least some risk. I don’t truly buy this -750 line and think FW are capable of a one off win against SKT. As mentioned, it’s unlikely, but I do consider it to be more of a possibility than a SuperMassive win over CLG. Or anyone else, for that matter.
Players to Target
Faker ($8,200) – If I can, I’ll be combining Stixxay with Faker. The unlikeliest of pairings, but the most fun. You’ll have to go cheap to do it, but it’s a consideration for a top heavy lineup.
Duke ($7,300) – When I can’t decide on a top laner, I look to SKT. FW haven’t been able to concretely decide just who their top laner is this season, and we’ll take any advantage we can get.
Maple ($5,900) – Obviously, we don’t want Faker and Maple on one team in almost any scenario. They’re still both good plays. Maple isn’t as known in western circles, and it’s a shame as he is simply one of the top mid laners out there. Faker won’t make it easy, but if FW give SKT troubles, it will be Maple taking over in the late game.