MSI Day 4 - DraftKings/AlphaDraft
The madness that is this tournament continued on Day 3 with more upsets, more G2 drama and best of all, more Stixxay. Coming into the tournament, one of the biggest questions is whether teams saw it as a major tournament, or another pit stop like IEM events. With G2 having taken a vacation prior to MSI and SKT dropping games like it’s preseason, it’s difficult not to wonder if the teams in Shanghai just aren’t that into it. RNG, though, continue to roll. With the crowd behind them and every player showing up big at MSI, they now seem the favorite to win it all next week. Will the upsets continue to roll? Let’s break the games down.
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G2 Esports (-351) vs. SuperMassive (+271)
Shocking as it is, G2’s semifinals hopes are actually alive. SKT have fallen apart over their last four games and sit just a game ahead of G2 in the standings, which opens the door for the possibility of G2 sneaking into next week’s knockout phase. It’s still a long shot and G2 would likely need to beat SKT in their next match, but they have to be aware of the second chance they’ve been given. That second chance starts with a game against the tournament’s weakest team and there’s simply no excuse for G2 to not win this game. Although Europe’s finest has been anything but fine at MSI and it hasn’t reflected well on their region, we can’t get a six game sample change how we view G2 as a whole. They’re still a great team and should be expected to show that tonight.
SuperMassive, on the other hand, have impressed. Their record may not reflect it at 1-5, but for one of the first times at any large international League of Legends tournament, the IWC representative has challenged all of their opponents, even defeating CLG. Given G2’s play thus far, we would be foolish not to consider the upset a legitimate possibility. I’ll be strongly considering having at least one SM player in most of my lineups.
Players to Target
Trick ($7,500) – Given that we’re not going to be rostering an SKT jungler, Trick becomes even more of an obvious option at the expensive end. Simply the top option on the night, just as he was on many slates during the EU LCS.
G2 Esports, TEAM ($6,400) – Once again, we target SM. Far superior option to SKT at the same price, who have already been beaten by CLG.
Achuu ($5,600) – No, that wasn’t a sneeze. With SM’s relatively impressive performances, Achuu has statistically been quite good. A 9.5 CSD@10 and a damage share north of 31% means any success against floundering G2 for SM should heavily feature Achuu.
Royal Never Give Up (-205) vs. Flash Wolves (+166)
RNG have been continually tested throughout the group stage and have seldom had convincing wins. They’re 6-0. An average game time of 41 minutes is quite long and does open the team up to the realities of late game death timers, but they’ve yet to take a loss. Superior team fighting and playmaking has been enough to carry RNG through any mistakes that they’ve been making and they seem invincible on appearances, but losses are inevitable if they don’t raise their early game level.
Flash Wolves have been the second best team at MSI, already booking a 2-0 sweep over SKT. Maple has flashed serious ability and reminded everyone on the world stage that he’s the real deal, and still a young player. I for one hope to see him as an NA import, but I won’t get my hopes up. Wolves actually have a better early game gold differential than Royal, so perhaps they can take advantage of Royal’s one perceived weakness. Expect FW to take chances in the first 10-20 minutes to try to gain any advantage they can, because Royal are extremely difficult to beat when the game revolves around late game fights.
Players to Target
Maple ($6,600) – As difficult as an opponent RNG is, Maple’s positive early game numbers and 81% KP are very strong. Even at 6-0, RNG have taken enough deaths that a player of Maple’s ability can do enough damage to justify an affordable $6,600.
Looper ($6,600) – There isn’t a single top laner at MSI with a 60% KP. It’s painful to be forced to roster a guaranteed tank who won’t likely be the focus of his team in any fashion. Unless you’re punting, I’d rather go Looper than pay for Duke or Kikis, who are far too pricey.
SK Telecom T1 (-385) vs. Counter Logic Gaming (+294)
The rematch! Of course, all of these games are rematches of a sort, but this is the game that the League community wants to see most. For me, SKT losing four straight is a bigger story than the singular upset to CLG, although CLG’s win is certainly making waves here in North America. The two biggest things I’m looking at heading into this game are SKT’s likely rebound now that they are faced with possible elimination and the fact that they lead CLG for most of the game in that match. We noted above that G2 now have a chance to eclipse SKT in the standings, and another loss to CLG could be what G2 needs to sneak above SKT. Expect a very well prepared and focused SKT, which is what they are known for in Korea. Hard work and dedication to their craft. That, and winning everything under the sun.
The game against CLG saw SKT have a lead of roughly 5,000 gold at 30 minutes, only for multiple shotcalling errors and a Baron swing to lead to CLG pulling the upset. For DFS, the most important thing for us is that we have to begin considering the possibility that Blank will be benched. The public is calling for bengi to step in and it’s not hard to imagine that SKT will make the swap, especially after the embarrassing Baron error by Blank against CLG. I simply do not have the knowledge to tell you which player will play, but I can tell you that they are tournament only plays. I’ll make it known on Twitter if the change becomes public.
So, who wins? I’m going with the SKT rebound, and in a big way. I’ll be avoiding bengi and Blank which is unfortunate, however I will certainly be looking at other SKT players.
Players to Target
Faker ($8,600) – I think it makes sense to go back to Faker here, if you can afford it. The price is significantly higher than I would have expected and that’s less than ideal, but it’s Faker. HuHi has held his own at MSI and performed better than expected, so give him credit. Still, he’s not in Faker or SKT’s league, despite yesterday’s upset.
Stixxay ($5,600) – What!? Who is this guy? Doublelift who? Just some of the questions one asks when thinking about CLG’s new ADC Stixxay. Inconsistency throughout games can haunt him and should be noted for potential downfalls against teams like SKT, yet he’s still dominating at MSI. Also, Bang has been a weak spot for SKT. Is Stixxay better than Bang? Probably not, in reality, but he seems so at MSI.
AlphaDraft Plays
Perkz ($7,900) – With everyone else on Faker and Maple, Perkz is extremely tempting on AD. Remember that it’s both of G2’s matchups, and they need wins badly. Strongly consider Perkz for a lower owned, higher upside play.
Bengi/Blank ($7,700) – Since we aren’t concerned about which plays on AlphaDraft, they’re an option. SKT play both SM and CLG, who were considered the two weakest teams prior to the tournament. It hasn’t quite shaken out that way, as we know, but SKT finishing the day 2-0 is a strong possibility.
Looper ($8,000) – This is so, so much to pay for a top laner with Looper’s numbers and I acknowledge that. The issue here is that I’m simply not able to trust SKT after their showing over the last two days, and need to keep my exposure to them to a limit. Looper give us a solid player with an equally solid chance of finishing the day 2-0.