NASCAR By The Numbers: AAA 400
There are eight races to go in the chase, and we have our first elimination race of the 2015 season. The rain was terrible on Friday, and all activities on the track were cancelled, including qualifying. They will start by points this weekend, and this has really eliminated a lot of value this weekend. I’m ready to attack it, and I’m ready to share who I like this week.
Matt Kenseth – Starting 1st – As we can see from the chart above, Kenseth has the second-highest driver rating among active drivers. With the weather canceling things on Friday, I expect there to be a competition caution on Sunday. I like the chances for Kenseth to lead the race to that point, and the clean air could cause a lot of fastest laps when out front. I’m targeting Kenseth more in tournaments this weekend, but I can’t say I hate him for cash games. He’s finished in the top 10 in three of his five races here since joining JGR, and the two races he didn’t, he had issues with the car.
Kevin Harvick – Starting 15th – With the rain out on Friday, it’s going to be tough finding solid value with positive place differential. Harvick is by far my favorite tournament play this weekend, and he’s in a must-win situation this weekend. If he doesn’t win this race, he will be eliminated from the Chase. Harvick led 223 of the 400 laps at this track last September, and finished second here in May. He has never won here, but it’s very possible he picks up the win Sunday. Looking at the chart above, you can see he doesn’t rank very high in any category, and this is why I’ll be targeting him in just tournaments this weekend.
Kyle Busch – Starting 13th – Like Kevin Harvick, Busch is facing elimination this weekend, and needs a high finish to make it past this round. He has the third-highest driver rating at Dover, and has finished in the top 10 in four of the last six races here. Busch has the highest percentage of quality passes, and should have no issues moving up from 13th. Kyle is one guy that’s on the bubble that I feel very comfortable with using in all formats this weekend. He always has a high upside, but I also love his floor this weekend.
Clint Bowyer – Starting 16th – Bowyer is having a rough start to the chase, and will need to win this weekend to advance. Bowyer has finished in the top 10 here in nine straight races, but he doesn’t lead laps or run fastest laps. It was 2010 when Bowyer last finished outside the top 10 here. I don’t think Bowyer has enough to get the win this weekend, but I do expect him to finish in the top 10. He’s still a risky play, because they may go big or go home this weekend.
Value Plays
David Ragan – Starting 28th – I just got done talking about Bowyer, and I really like his teammate to move up and have a solid finish. Right now I have Bowyer and Ragan in my cash lineup, and the rainout really helps the value for Ragan. He usually qualifies too high, and then we overlook him because of negative place differential. He has an average finish of 24 here, and he finished 13th in the May race, and his only race here was with Michael Waltrip Racing.
Greg Biffle – Starting 20th – Roush Fenway Racing is having a terrible season and will look to finish it strong. Biffle has some solid opportunity for positive place differential this weekend. He has an average finish of 13.85 here, but he’s way to risky for cash games this week. The last three races here have been tough for Biffle, but I feel like he can turn it around this weekend.
If you’re looking for cash game plays, my video has the three guys I’m focusing my lineups around this week. Thanks for reading, if you have any questions please post them in the comments.