NASCAR By The Numbers: AAA 400 Drive for Autism
It’s time for the Monster Mile! This weekend is one of my favorite races of the year, so much sure to check it out Sunday 1PM on FS1. I apologize ahead of time if the article is a little shorter this week, I’m dealing with a stomach bug and it’s winning right now. The spring race is a little different this year, it’s supposed to be a lot cooler at the track on Sunday. With qualifying rained out, I’m hoping we get some practice on Saturday to see what the cars are doing. Make sure to pay attention to that, and if you have any questions about it, feel free to reach out.
Kevin Harvick – Starting 1st – $10,400 – Harvick comes in as the top cash play this weekend, and he dominated this race in October. He has four to ten finishes out of the last six races, and the second highest driver rating over the last three spring races. Harvick’s biggest issue has been pit stops and qualifying this year, and starting on the pole fixes the qualifying and it gives him the best pit stall selection. If he doesn’t lead a lot of laps, I think it will be pitting not driving that causes the problem. He’s led at least 90 laps in three straight races here, and over 220 in two of the last three. It’s really hard not to start your lineups with him this weekend.
Jimmie Johnson – Starting 21st – $10,700 – When we have a driver starting 21st that’s won three of the last five races, you know he’s going to be in my article for cash games. He’s really in a great spot for place differential, and he still has potential to lead laps from 21st. In the 2013 spring race, Johnson started 24th and ended up leading 143 laps. This team has something figured out at this track, and they always seem to find a way to the front. In 28 career races here, he’s led at least one lap in 21 of them. He has the highest driver rating here, and ten career wins, including the spring race from May of 2015.
Joey Logano – Starting 22nd – $9,600 – While I usually don’t like paying up for a guy that probably won’t lead any laps, I really like Logano for place differential this weekend. He has finished 11th or better in eight straight races here, but has only led one career lap in 14 career starts. Logano isn’t anything flashy, but he’s a safer option this weekend, and I don’t expect him to be very popular because of his limited upside. If Harvick dominates the race like he did last fall, place differential plays are going to be key to having a nice day.
Kyle Larson – Starting 23rd – $7,900 – Larson is one of my favorite plays this weekend, and I’m probably going to have a lot of GPP exposure to him. Larson has been great here in four career starts, and he’s finished 11th or better in all four races. Larson has an average running position of 9.7, and he’s run 87.7% of his laps in the top 15. He’s qualified really well here, and track position is important but I still think he’s a great play for place differential this weekend.
Tony Stewart – Starting 34th – $7,400 – If you would have asked me last year, I would have told you never to play Stewart. While Stewart is my favorite driver personally, he really struggled on the racetrack last season, and it was very hard to watch. He’s finished 19th and 12th in two races this year, and he looks to be a great spot for place differential. Stewart won at Dover in 2013, and even in his struggles last season, he finished 16th in the spring race. I like Stewart in all formats on this slate, and I will be using him in my cash lineup.
Value Play
Danica Patrick – Starting 31st – $6,200 – I liked Danica a lot because of price on Wednesday when pricing was released, and I like her even more starting 31st. She will be in a backup car, but that doesn’t really affect how I feel about her this weekend. Danica has positive place differential in six of seven career races here, and he’s never finished worst than 31st (her starting spot). The key to Dover is trying to figure out who can stay on the lead lap, and Danica has a lot better equipment than most of the bottom ten. I still think she falls one to three laps down, but I like her chances for 5-15 place differential points.