NASCAR By the Numbers: Auto Club 400
I felt like I had a good feel on the weekend, and then qualifying completely changed that feeling. In the Daily Fantasy Pitstop, I talked about Austin Dillon being a cash game play. After qualifying first, I don’t think he’s a cash game play anymore.
With tire wear off being a massive concern this weekend, you really need to pay attention to 10-lap times in the two practices on Saturday. This is going to be a very fun race to watch, and I can’t wait to see what happens on Sunday!
Kevin Harvick – $10,500 – Starting 2nd – After issues in 2014, Harvick followed up with a second place finish last season. He’s so good at long runs, and I see leading laps this weekend. He has seven top ten finishes in the last ten races here, and won this race in 2011. Harvick comes in with the fourth highest average running position, and I think it’s smart to play him in cash games this weekend. He has a lot of upside, and I’m really looking forward to seeing his practice times on Saturday.
Jimmie Johnson – $10,400 – Starting 19th – If you want to play someone who is a lot safer than Harvick in cash games, Johnson is in a great spot this weekend. Johnson and Earnhardt both struggled in qualifying on Friday, and they’re both now elite options on Sunday. Johnson has won this race five times in his career, and has the highest driver rating among active drivers. He also has the highest average running position here. Johnson has finished third or better in five of the last ten races, and has only finished worse than 19th (his starting spot this weekend) once in 21 career races here.
Kurt Busch – $9,500 – Starting 26th – After picking up two poles in four races, Kurt really struggled on Friday, and ended up not making the cut in the first round. I was extremely high on Kurt coming into the weekend, and now I think he’s an auto play in cash games this weekend. He comes into the race with four straight top ten finishes here, and he has the third highest driver rating over the last three races here. I really like Dale Earnhardt Jr. as well, but I’m giving the slight edge to Kurt this weekend.
Kyle Larson – $8,200 – Starting 32 – So Larson went from an iffy to a great play in the matter of 20 minutes. As we’ve seen this season, the bottom ten in the field has nothing on the top 20-25 cars. Larson is in a great spot for place differential, and he finished second here in 2014. Looking at the chart above, Larson has an average running position of 12.8 over two races here. Everything is pointing up for Larson this weekend, and he’s in play in all formats for me.
Greg Biffle – $6,600 – Starting 22nd – If you followed me last season, you almost had to know this was coming at some point. As a NASCAR fan, I remember all the time that Biffle is a good driver, and I just think this whole team is struggling. Biffle needs a top 19 finish to score 30 DraftKings points this weekend, and might actually out score some of the guys in this price range that qualified towards the front. Biffle is a veteran, he’s dealt with tire fall off before, and I really like his chances for plus place differential this weekend.
Value Play
Danica Patrick – $6,200 – Starting 31st – She crushed it for us last weekend, and I’m going back to the well with her this weekend. She has an average finished of 19.7 in three career races here, and has finished 26th or better in all three races. She can score 30 fantasy points with a top 22 finish this weekend, and could be a nice low owned option this weekend. I wouldn’t be shocked if she scores a top 20 finish this weekend.
Thanks for reading. I will be doing a special podcast on my Twitter this Saturday night at around 9 EST!