NASCAR By the Numbers: Axalta 400
If you don’t watch a lot of NASCAR, I’ll put it into different terms for you; Martin Truex Jr. threw a perfect game at Charlotte last weekend.
This week we head to the tricky triangle. The race is Sunday at 1PM EST on FS1. If you’ve never watched a race at Pocono, make sure you tune in for this one. This race we will be targeting one to two dominators, but place differential is going to be important in cash games. I waited to see final practice on Saturday, and honestly, it didn’t really help because a lot of teams didn’t run ten consecutive laps. We will be relying on a lot of past loop data this weekend.
Brad Keselowski – Starting 1st – $9,100 – DraftKings did us a favor this weekend; Keselowski is way too cheap, and he’s the dominator I’m targeting in cash games. While he’s not going to show up at the top in driver rating here, he does have the fourth-highest driver rating over the last four races here. His biggest issue this weekend; his teammate Joey Logano also has a fast car. In 2014, Brad led 95 of the 160 laps here at Pocono. Brad has led 7.1% of the laps here in the last 22 races, which is the fifth most. We continue to see how important clean air is, and Brad should lead a good amount of laps if he can get out in front of Logano early.
Kyle Busch – Starting 12th – $10,200 – I’m going to be different than a lot of people here, I like Kyle a lot more than Truex this weekend. There are two tracks that Kyle Busch hasn’t won at, Pocono is one of those two tracks. He’s going to be very hungry here, and he’s exactly the type of driver that could win from 12th. When looking at his history here, he’s been good or bad. He comes in with an average finish of 16.6 over his last ten races, but he’s finished 12th or better in six of those ten races. Kyle was the fastest car in final practice, and he was the fastest over a 10-lap run in final practice. I really like Kyle’s chances to pick up the win this weekend.
Kurt Busch – Starting 9th – $9,400 – Kurt has been so close lately, and he comes in with seven straight top ten finishes. He is all over the graph above, and he leads one of my favorite stats, quality pass percentage. He has the third highest average running position, and the second most laps led since 2005. He has an average finish of 5th over the last three June races here, and five top five finishes in the last nine Pocono races. I like Kurt’s chances to get fastest laps here, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets out front. He’s a solid floor play for cash games, and I think he has some solid upside for GPPs.
Kyle Larson – Starting 21st – $8,700 – Are you guys sick of my talking about Larson yet? I don’t see it stopping anything soon, he’s driving the wheels off the car right now. Larson has finished 12, 8, 11, and 5 in four career races here. Only Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a better average finish over the last four Pocono races. I like Larson a little more for GPPs this weekend, but that’s because of his price. I think his teammate Jamie McMurray is a much better cash game option this weekend. Larson is driving with a lot of confidence right now, and comes into the weekend with a ton of momentum.
I love this graphic NASCAR sent out, so I wanted to share it with you guys!
Value Plays
AJ Allmendinger – Starting 32nd – $6,800 – If you’re playing cash games, and you don’t have Allmendinger, you’re not doing this the right way. There’s no reason not to have him in your lineups this weekend, and he’s by far my top play this weekend. Outside of accidents and radiator issues, Allmendinger has been a very solid here. He’s finished 25th or better in 11 straight races this season, and his worst finish is 27th. He’s about as safe as they get for NASCAR cash games, and he’s a guy that I’m going to have in a lot of my lineups.
Ty Dillon – Starting 28th – $6,000 – It wouldn’t be a NASCAR article if I didn’t have a chance to talk about my dude Ty Dillon. Dillon started 29th in a Circle Sport car last June, and ended up finishing 18th. I really like Ty’s chances to stay out of trouble, and his ability to stay on the lead lap. This 95 car is nothing like the 14 car he’s been driving, but he does have an average finish of 20.4 in five cup races this season. As I’m writing this, he’s running in the top three of the XFINITY race. I don’t think he’s a cash game play this weekend, but I do think he’s a solid GPP play. If he’s the last piece of your cash team, I would play him over any of the other guys under $6,000.