NASCAR By the Numbers: Bank of America 500
Tough week for myself last weekend, but I still stand behind my Jimmie Johnson play. This weekend we have a Saturday night race, and we have one of my favorite tracks to attend live. Charlotte is the home of a lot of these race teams, and it usually creates a lot of great racing. We are down to 12 in the Chase, and everything resets for the Contenders. Charlotte and Kansas are very important with Talladega being the third race of this round, and I expect a lot of drivers to go for the win this weekend.
Kyle Busch – Starting 2nd – With Busch starting second, Kenseth is going to have his hands full early in this one. I think Busch has the most upside out of any driver this race. He has the most laps led, and the second highest driver rating. Kyle was much faster than Kenseth in final practice, and I see him challenging for the lead in the first few laps. Kenseth started on the pole in the May race, and only led 26 laps on the way to a fourth place finish. I am still leaning Harvick over Kyle in cash games, but I’m not against playing them together.
Carl Edwards – Starting 8th – Edwards is one of my favorite cash plays this weekend. He’s looking for the Charlotte sweep, and he was able to win this race in May. He’s finished 11th or better in eight straight races, and he’s in a solid spot for a top five finish this weekend. Edwards runs a lot of his laps in the top 15, and he has the seventh highest driver rating among active drivers. Edwards has the third highest average finish here among active drivers.
Jimmie Johnson – Starting 7th – Johnson was eliminated from the Chase last weekend, and I think he comes out very hungry this weekend. As you can see from above, Johnson has been very good at Charlotte throughout his career. He has the highest Driver Rating, and runs the most laps in the top 15. I don’t see a lot of people using Johnson this weekend, but I think he’s a very solid play at this price point.
Kyle Larson – Starting 31st – Larson has had some up and downs at this track, but I can’t pass on him starting this far back. Easily could have put Denny Hamlin right here, but I think Larson has more upside. He finished sixth here last October, and hasn’t finished worse than 25th since joining Chip Ganassi Racing. I was really high on him after seeing his starting spot, but he wasn’t much faster in practice on Friday. He’s a risky play, but I will be playing him in all formats this weekend.
Value Plays
Ryan Newman – Starting 10th – Newman is one of my favorite plays on DraftKings this weekend. Newman has finished in the top ten in four of his last five races here at Charlotte. He’s not going to lead laps, but I really like his chances to finish in the top ten. My biggest issue with Newman, he has a massive -174 pass differential at this track. I looked into this, and a lot of this came when he was running for Penske Racing. He’s been much better since joining Richard Childress Racing. Cool side note, Richard Childress Racing museum in North Carolina is a must see for any NASCAR fan.
Trevor Bayne – Starting 33rd – A lot of my normal value plays are starting much higher than I like. I think Almirola is worth the risk if you’re playing multiple teams, but I recommend getting some exposure to Bayne. He has an average finish of 20th, and is in a good spot to get positive place differential. Roush Fenway Racing is having a very rough season, and needs some strong finishes to end the season. Bayne has never finished worse than 31st at Charlotte.
Thanks for reading, and remember the race is Saturday night, not Sunday. Check out my video for the cash game plays I’m targeting this week.