NASCAR By the Numbers: Bojangles Southern 500
This weekend, we head to Darlington for the Bojangles Southern 500. The race is Sunday at 6 PM EST on NBC. There are a ton of big tournaments on DraftKings this weekend. We have a Fantasy NASCAR Periscope on the RotoGrinders twitter, Sunday at 4pm EST.
With qualifying being rained out on Friday, we have a lot of good drivers at the top, and we don’t have a lot of value this weekend. I recommend finding two to three dominators this weekend. In tournaments, I will limit myself on dominators and play the high-upside guys. Place differential is going to be just as important this weekend and will be harder to project with no qualifying. We are going to rely on practice, recent form, and track history this weekend. Track history changes a lot because of the low down force package, but they did run this package here last season.
Kevin Harvick – $10,600 – Starting 1st – Harvick started on the pole in 2014, and he absolutely dominated that race. His biggest issue has been qualifying this season, and I really like his chances to lead a lot of laps this weekend. I don’t think anyone is a must-play this weekend, but I will be playing Harvick in cash games and a lot of GPPs this weekend. Harvick was good on a long run in first practice, and I really just worry about Keselowski starting next to him. He has finished sixth or better in five of the last six races this season. Harvick has 17 top-5 finishes in the last 30 races at intermediate tracks.
Denny Hamlin – $9,600 – Starting 7th – Coming into the weekend, Hamlin was my favorite to win the race, and that hasn’t changed. There’s a good chance I end up with Hamlin/Harvick as my dominators in cash and in GPPs. Hamlin has the highest average finish over the last six races, and the highest average finish among active drivers at Darlington. He’s been really good at Darlington in his career and comes in with a career 107.8 driver rating (second-highest). Hamlin is showing a lot of speed in practice, and I’m really high on him this weekend.
Brad Keselowski – $10,200 – Starting 2nd – Shifting gears to GPPs, I really like Keselowski as a high-upside GPP option. Keselowski is the reason I won’t go all-in on Harvick this weekend. As I’m writing this, he’s fastest in second practice, and had the car to beat here last season. He’s starting second, and all it takes is for him to get in front of Harvick. He led 196 of 367 laps with this package last season. He’s been really good at intermediate tracks with this package. He won Kentucky and Las Vegas this year.
Jeff Gordon – $8,700 – Starting 15th – Jeff Gordon at Darlington is a thing, and it’s been a thing for a long time. Gordon has the highest driver rating among active drivers, and he’s won this race seven times in his career. I don’t expect him to win this weekend, but I do like his chances to score place differential. This will be Gordon’s fifth race this season, and he’s finished 14th or better in three of those four races. His history here speaks for itself, and I love the experience he brings to this 88 car this weekend.
Value Plays
Chris Buescher – $6,600 – Starting 31st – Remember the time we were able to get Buescher under $6k? Well, that is a thing of the past. He’s starting in a spot that makes him very playable for cash games this weekend, and I think there’s a good chance he finishes in the top 20. He finished 5th here in his championship XFINITY year last season. He showed top-20 speeds in both practices on Saturday. It’s not official anywhere, but I think it’s pretty obvious that RFR is putting more resources into this 34 team.
Greg Biffle – $7,200 – Starting 23rd – Biffle is 23rd in points right now, and at this point, he has to win to make the chase. He has two wins at Darlington (2005 and 2006), and he has the fifth-highest driver rating at Darlington. Among active drivers, Biffle has the highest percentage of laps led here. He’s showing a lot of speed in final practice, and as I’m writing this, he’s the fastest over a 10-lap run in final practice. With no qualifying this weekend, we’ve lost a lot of value from guys that struggle in qualifying, and I think Biffle is in play in all formats this weekend.