NASCAR By the Numbers: Bristol
It’s Bristol baby! If you follow NASCAR, the Bristol night race is probably one of your favorite races of the year. It’s a Saturday night race, an we’re back on NBCSN at 8:00 PM EST on Saturday night.
Bristol is a unique track, and there’s a lot of dominator points up for grabs this weekend. In cash games, it’s smart to target two to three dominators with some solid place differential plays. We have up to 375 dominator points this weekend, and that’s more than our entire lineup will score on some weeks. Place differential is still a solid way to find high floor drivers. The Toyota’s are fast again this weekend, and I wouldn’t be shocked if a JGR team stack takes down a GPP.
Carl Edwards – $9,700 – Starting 1st – With the pole on Friday, Edwards sweeps the poles at Bristol for the season. He won from the pole, and led 276 of 500 laps in the April race here. He comes in with the highest driver rating over the last five, and four top tens with two wins in those five races. Edwards has always been strong at Bristol, and have the sixth highest driver rating among active drivers. Edwards is my favorite target for dominator points this weekend, and I like the fact that we get him under 10k.
Denny Hamlin – $9,500 – Starting 2nd – Hamlin is one of my favorite GPP plays this weekend, and I really think he has the car to beat. He was extremely fast all day Friday, and he posted the fastest 10-lap run in final practice. After showing speed throughout practice, Hamlin went out and set a track record in the first round of qualifying. The JGR stack is totally in play this weekend, and they could dominate the dominator points on Saturday night. Hamlin has been really up and down here lately, but he’s riding the momentum of a win at the Glen.
Kevin Harvick – $10,400 – Starting 24th – Harvick is a great cash game play this weekend, and probably my favorite pick for place differential. It doesn’t show in recent finishes, but Harvick has been really good here in the last five races. He has the second highest driver rating over the last five races here. Harvick has the third highest average running position at Bristol among active drivers, and I expect him to move through the field tonight. He continues to struggle with qualifying, and continues to be a solid play every week because of his struggles with qualifying.
Kyle Larson – $8,500 – Starting 23rd – After watching the XFINITY race on Friday night, I’m still amazed at Larson’s ability to run the “other” line. I talk about it all the time, but his ability to do this, makes him a great GPP option for tonight. He’s one of the most aggressive drivers in the cup series, and that plays to my GPP thoughts for him. He has five career races here, and an average finish of 21st. He had a very fast car in the April race, and an issue kept him from competing for the win. I really like him this weekend, and I actually think he has a shot to win the race.
Value Plays
Greg Biffle – $7,000 – Starting 34th – Biffle spun out in round one of qualifying, and will be starting towards the back on Saturday night. He has an average finish of 17.8 over the last five Bristol races, and an average finish of 20.3 over the last six races this season. He has a crazy high floor this weekend, and he’s one of my top cash game options. With his floor and upside being really solid, I might end up playing him in all formats very heavily. Biffle has finished 12th or better in five of the last seven races this season. A top 14 finish would result in at least 50 fantasy points for him this weekend.
Clint Bowyer – $6,900 – Starting 31st – Like Biffle, Bowyer messed up in the first round of qualifying, and actually ended up hitting the wall. Bowyer started 36th in the April race, and pulled off a eight-place finish. I’m not expecting him to do the same thing this weekend, but I do like his chances for at least 10+ place differential points. The Biffle/Bowyer combo should be very solid for cash games, and you’re really looking at nailing the dominator points with the extra cap. Bowyer has finished 17th or better in nine straight races at Bristol.