NASCAR By the Numbers: Cheez-It 355
We head to The Glen for some road course racing this weekend. It’s Sunday at 2:30 PM EST on USA Network.
It’s only 90 laps this weekend, and we will be focusing on place differential and finishing position. There’s only 22.5 fantasy points available for laps led this weekend, and fastest laps should come throughout the field. It’s very rare to see someone lead more than 50% of the laps, and in 2015, three different drivers led 20+ laps.
This race has fuel strategy, a crazy turn one, and 11-turns a lap. It’s one of my favorites races of the year, and it’s going to be fun for DFS.
Kurt Busch – $10,400 – Starting 17th – Kurt is one of my favorite place differential plays this weekend, and I think he’s a lock for cash games. He comes in with three straight top ten finishes here, and he’s finished in the top ten in five of the last seven. It’s tough to pass at road courses, and Kurt is one of the best at doing it. He has the third highest quality pass percentage at the Glen. He’s not going to led a lot of laps if any at all, but I do love his chances to pick up at least eight place differential points here. A top five finish would result in at least 50 fantasy points for Kurt this weekend.
Kevin Harvick – $10,300 – Starting 15th – Harvick is another guy that could pull off a top five finish this weekend. Only Kurt Busch and Joey Logano have a better average finish over the last five road courses. Harvick had a great chance to win this race last season, and hasn’t finished worst than 15 in six straight here. Harvick is in great form right now, and has top ten finishes in eight of the last nine races. Road courses can be tricky for fantasy, but recent form is a good stat to look at. As I mentioned in my video this week, I’m a big fan of Danica, and I think this whole SHR team is in play here.
Paul Menard – $7,400 – Starting 33rd – Qualifying gets the best of some people, and that surely happened with Paul Menard on Saturday. Menard has never finished worse than 33rd (his starting position), but he has zero career top ten finishes in 12 races here. If he scores a top 23 this weekend, he will score at least 30 fantasy points. He can score at least 40 fantasy points with a top 18 finished, and he’s finished 17th or better in three of the last four here. He was one of eight drivers to run a ten lap run in final practice, and his times were much higher than guys starting in front of him. Menard is one of my favorite cash game options this weekend.
Greg Biffle – $7,700 – Starting 24th – While I like Menard a lot for GPPs, I actually think Biffle is a great pivot in GPPs. Biffle has the top ten upside that Menard lacks, and would score at least 48 fantasy points with a top ten this weekend. He’s finished in the top ten in two of his last four races here, and this team has been running much better lately. Biffle has an average finish of 19.2 here in his last 11 races, and actually offers a pretty solid floor.
Value Play
Aric Almirola – $6,300 – Starting 34th – I worry about Almirola’s recent form, but I think this is a solid bounce back spot for him. He’s finished 20th or better in three of the last five races this season, and +14 place differential would be huge this weekend. In five career races, Almirola has finished 18th or better in three of those races. His fastest lap of final practice came towards the end, and I hope he can bounce back from a very poor qualifying run.