NASCAR By the Numbers: Cheez-It 355 at the Glen
Last week was one of the weirdest races I’ve ever seen. If you got burnt last weekend, chalk it up to variance and stick to your research. This week we have a road course, so we are going to be focusing a lot on Driver Rating and Average Running Position. There’s a lot of value this week, and it’s really easy to get five stud drivers. Before we get started, I just wanted to thank you all again for the great comments on this article.
AJ Allmendinger – Starting 1st – Allmendinger locked up the pole and swept the road course qualifying this season. He was an extreme value play at Sonoma and car issues ruined his day. Allmendinger has the second-highest average finish and the third-best driver rating since 2005. His 12.2 average running position is the third-best as well. His price tag is high this weekend, but it does come with a ton of upside. In his career at the Glen, Allmendinger has never finished worse than seventh place. If he’s able to get a lead, he could rack up the points this weekend.
Tony Stewart – Starting 3rd – Since 2005, Tony Stewart has the highest driver rating, and the highest percentage of laps in the top 15. His average running position of 5.7 is the highest among active drivers, and honestly it’s not very close. Smoke doesn’t have a win this season, and this might be his best chance to pick up a win. He’s going to be hungry and aggressive, and that could lead to a big fantasy day for him. This has been probably his worse season, and I wouldn’t trust him for cash games. Smoke has five career wins, and seven top 5 finishes at the Glen.
Carl Edwards – Starting 15th – My friends at NASCAR changed the sheet up this week, and I love the change. Percentage of laps in the top 15 is a great way to judge a driver’s ability throughout the race. Edwards starting 15 this weekend has a ton of upside. He runs a lot of his laps in the top 15 and has the fourth-highest average running position. As you can see from above, Edwards has an average +5 place differential at this track. He’s a solid cash game play this weekend, and probably one of the safest drivers for this race.
Martin Truex Jr. – Starting 2nd – Truex is a GPP play I’m really looking at this weekend. He has a ton of upside, and if he’s able to get past Allmendinger, he could put up a lot of fantasy points. With him starting second, he’s going to be a risk/reward type of play. He’s very good at making passes here (fourth among active drivers in Quality Pass Percentages). He comes in with top-five finishes in two of the last four races at the Glen.
Value Picks
Chris Buescher – Starting 32nd – Buescher is leading the points in the XFINITY series this season. He won the Mid-Ohio race in his last road course race in the XFINITY series, and he’s been known for being an above average road course racer. He’s starting towards the back, and should be able to finish with a nice place differential. I’m hoping that he’s low owned this weekend, but NASCAR fans definitely know who this guy is.
Casey Mears – Starting 29th – Mears might be the best value play on the board this weekend. Since joining Germain Racing, he hasn’t finished worse than 20th at the Glen. He has a career average finish of 18.7 and has been good at driving through the field here. He has an average starting posting of 27th, and an average finish of 15.75 in his last four races. He’s an excellent target for plus place differential this weekend, and a guy I’ll be using in my cash lineups.
Nothing really changed from last week, except Kenseth is now locked into the Chase. Kahne, Bowyer, Newman, and Menard are all still very much in risk at this point, and might really be pushing for a win. As we mentioned above, Stewart and Allmendinger both need a win to make the chase, and they both will be going for at this weekend. Gordon and McMurray are both good at road courses, but they are still pretty safe and might not be pushing it as much.
My sleeper pick this week is Joey Logano. I really wish he didn’t win the XFINITY race, and he will likely be higher owned now. Logano is hungry for a win right now and has been so close over the last four races. He finished second to Kyle Busch twice and ran out of gas last weekend after dominating most of the race. Outside of two bad races with some bad luck, Logano has three top 7 finishes. He has a weird price tag this weekend, and I think a lot of people will be looking at Brad Keselowski.
Thanks for reading, make sure to check out my video for my cash game targets.