NASCAR By the Numbers: Duck Commander 500
Last weekend reminded us just how much upside Kyle Busch presents weekly. He wasn’t on a lot of people’s radar, but ended up dominating the race. This weekend we have a Saturday night race (TUNE IN: 7:30est on FOX). The end of final practice was the closest thing we have to race conditions for Saturday night.
Over the last four races, one or two drivers have dominated the laps led here. This weekend is a good weekend to target four place differential guys, and two dominator point upside guys.
Kevin Harvick – $10,500 – Starting 22nd – If we look at the chart above, we see that Harvick is down on the list for driver rating. Harvick has finished third or better in three straight races here, and has been very good here since joining Stewart-Haas Racing. Starting this far back, I really think Harvick is a great cash game option this weekend. You have to pay up for him this weekend, but he’s going to be a great place differential play. A top five finish will result in 50 fantasy points without any laps led or fastest laps. Harvick also had the fourth fastest 10-lap time in final practice, and it came towards the end of practice.
Kyle Busch – $10,100 – Starting 15th – After dominating yet another XFINITY race on Friday night, Busch will be a popular pick this weekend. Busch has finished fourth or better in five of his last six races here, and he won the April race in 2013. Busch is another guy that has a great floor here, but he also has the upside to lead laps if he gets out front. Probably not smart to use your entire cap on Harvick and Busch, but I think they’re both solid options this weekend.
Brad Keselowski – $9,600 – Starting 8th – The high floor picks are over, lets get into some upside plays for the weekend. Keselowski started on the pole last November, and led 312 laps in that race. He has three straight top five finished, and has finished tenth or better in seven of his last eight races. I think Penske is sneaky this weekend. Keselowski was third fastest over a 10-lap run in final practice, and I like his chances to move up fast in this race.
Carl Edwards – $9,500 – Starting 1st – I like to target the car on the pole here, but I think Edwards is more of a GPP play. He’s really fast in the short run, but his 10-lap runs are very concerning. He was 17th fastest over a 10-lap run in final practice. If you’re worried about Edwards dropping off, I really like Martin Truex as a GPP play as well. It doesn’t happen very often, I think you could fade the top five drivers, and get a nice edge in GPPs this weekend.
Photo Credit to @DFS_Analytics
Value Plays
Aric Almirola – $6,600 – Starting 24th – Looking at the heat-graph above, we see that Almirola scores 30+ fantasy points with a top 19 finish in this race. He’s finished 19th or better in four of his last six races here at Texas. I don’t see him moving up fast in this race, and it might be a slow and steady approach for him here. I really do like his chances for a top 15 finish here, and he’s a guy that I’ll be playing in all formats.
Ty Dillon – $6,300 – Starting 30th – Dillon had a top three car in the XFINITY race on Friday night, and really proved he’s going to handle this bumpy track well. He’s run three NASCAR races this season, and has finished 25th or better in all three races, with two top twenty finishes. He’s run six XFINITY races here, and he’s finished 15th or better in all six races here. Ty is in a great spot for DFS this weekend, and I really like his chances to score a top 20 finish here.