NASCAR By the Numbers: Federated Auto Parts 400
This weekend, we head to Richmond for the Federated Auto Parts 400. The race is Saturday night at 7:30EST PM. It’s also fan appreciation weekend, so thank you all for being fans of one of the newest DFS sports.
We have a lot of exciting stuff coming to the RotoGrinders NASCAR product, and should have an announcement next week.
At Richmond earlier this season, place differential was hard to come by. That’s not going to be the case this weekend. We have some great place differential plays this weekend. Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. This is the last race before the Chase, and we could see some really crazy strategy for guys outside of the top 16. This is not my favorite week for cash games, but it’s hard to overlook how easy it is to build a cash lineup. There’s been so many times where one person dominated the dominator points, but in GPPs, I like the idea of running two dominators.
Denny Hamlin – $9,500 – Starting 1st – JGR has a ton of speed this weekend (all five guys at the top of 10-lap runs in happy hour), and Hamlin gets the benefit of starting on the pole. This team is absolutely locked in right now, and he comes in with an average finish of 4.67 over the last six races this season. After a rough stretch of four finishes outside of the top 20, Hamlin has finished sixth in each of the last two races here. Hamlin has the third-highest driver rating among active drivers, and he has an average finish of 10.55 over 20-career races here.
Kevin Harvick – $10,700 – Starting 19th – Three things we can expect almost every weekend at this point. Harvick qualifying badly, Harvick finishing with good place differential, and Harvick’s pit crew messing up at some point. Harvick has been a staple in my cash game lineups all season, and I’m willing to pay up for him again this weekend. Harvick is really solid at Richmond, and he posted the sixth-fastest 10-lap time in final practice. His fast 10-lap run came towards the end of practice, and it looks like they figured everything out. Harvick has the second highest driver rating at Richmond, and he has three top five finishes in the last four races here.
Chase Elliott – $8,400 – Starting 34th – Elliott is by far the best cash game play this weekend, and I like the idea of going really heavy in GPPs. Elliott is anything but locked into the chase at this point. While he’s 14th in points, all it takes is a non winner winnings, and Dillon/McMurray both finishing top five with Elliott outside of the top 20. Elliott is going to be point racing this weekend, and he seems like a really safe option. He’s a great place differential option, and he showed a lot of speed at the end of happy hour.
Matt Kenseth – $9,900 – Starting 3rd – I’ve talked a lot about cash games, and I wanted to shift gears to GPPs. Like I mentioned with Hamlin, JGR is extremely fast this weekend. I wouldn’t be shocked if Hamlin dominates the race, but if he struggles, I could see Kenseth up front for a lot of laps. He started second in last years September race, and ended up leading 352 laps and winning the race. Since joining JGR in 2013, Kenseth has six top-10 finishes in seven races here at Richmond. Kenseth has a 105.4 driver rating over the last five races at Richmond.
Value Plays
Chris Buscher – $6,600 – Starting 31st – The time has come for this team to put up or miss the chase. He has to run solid this weekend, and he’s going to be in full points mode. He’s finished in the top 20 in four of his last six races this season. I’ve hated on this guy so much this season, but I think it’s pretty obvious he’s in better equipment since picking up the win at Pocono. He was 25th in final practice over a 10-lap average, and I like his chances to finish 22nd or better.
Danica Patrick – $6,300 – Starting 29th – Danica is one of my favorite GPP plays this weekend. She’s back over 6k this weekend, and she’s actually been decent at Richmond in recent years. Nobody was playing her under 6k, and I think she’s overlooked in this price range. She’s finished 25th or better in four straight, and two of those were top-20 finishes. If she pulls in a top 20 this weekend, she could easily be on the winning GPP team. Also she was 20th in 10-lap times in final practice on Friday.