NASCAR By the Numbers: Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
After a great finish at Daytona, we head to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.
This race will be featuring the new low downforce aero package. They tested this package at Darlington and Kentucky last year.
We will be relying a lot on those races, and what happens with final practice on Saturday.
Kyle Busch – $10,100 – Starting 39th – I’m singling Busch out this weekend, he’s a must play for me this weekend. Kyle Busch actually qualified on the pole, but his rear toe exceeded the allowable amount and his times were disallowed. He has an extremely high floor, and has the highest upside of any driver this weekend. Busch won the race at Kentucky last year, and had a seventh place finish at Darlington. Busch is known for being good at these 1.5-mile tracks, and there’s no reason not to have him in cash games this weekend.
Carl Edwards – $9,600 – Starting 7th – Edwards was one of my favorite picks coming into this race, and the three-time winner here looks to be a top five car. He’s had a lot of success at Atlanta, and he comes in with the second highest driver rating. Edwards came back from a lap down to win the race at Darlington last season, and finished fourth at Kentucky. He’s been very vocal about liking this low downforce, and I expect him to contend for the win on Sunday.
Joey Logano – $10,400 – Starting 26th – Logano had a rough go in qualifying, but he’s really happy with the race trim of the car. I would expect him to be in the top ten in 10-lap runs in final practice on Saturday. Logano finished in the top four in both races with this package last season, and the package should allow for some passing fast. After a rough five first races here, Logano hasn’t finished worst than 14 since joining Team Penske. Logano also comes in with the second highest driver rating over the last two seasons at Intermediate tracks.
Martin Truex Jr – $9,100 – Starting 9th – Truex is my sleeper this weekend, and should be one of the lowest owned drivers in this price range. Truex was very solid at Darlington and Kentucky last year. He had an average running position of 9.3 and 5.7. I really like his chances for a top five this weekend, and this team could be very hungry after coming so close last week. Truex also has the second highest average running position at Atlanta since 2005. In 12 Intermediate races last year, Truex had eight top tens, and didn’t finish lower than 17th.
Kyle Larson – $8,300 – Starting 20th – Larson is one guy to watch this season with the new aero package. He’s had a lot of success in open-wheel cars, and I expect him to excel with this package. He had an average running position of 8.9 at Darlington, and finished the race with a +23 pass differential. He had some bad luck at Kentucky, but was able to run in the top ten for the first part of the race. Larson is one of my favorite plays this weekend, and I think he’s in play in all formats.
Value Pick
I still stand behind the two value plays I gave out in the Daily Fantasy Pitstop.
Chris Buescher – $5,600 – Starting 31st – If you want to take a risk this weekend, I think Buescher could finish in the top 25. He’s risky because he could finish in the 35-39 ranges, but I like him more than any other driver down here (outside of Dillon). He’s finished 13th or better in all three XFINITY races here, and I expect him to give Elliott a run for his money for this year Rookie of the Year. He’s a risky play for sure, but he’s a guy that could be under 10% owned this weekend.