NASCAR By The Numbers: GEICO 500
This weekend we head to Talladega for the Geico 500, Sunday at 1pm EST on Fox. I love to watch Superspeedways, and I actually had a ton of success with fantasy at Daytona. I’m hoping the strategy of targeting one dominator, and five place differential guys will pay off again this weekend. Like we seen in Daytona, if a team of drivers are able to get out front, they’re going to be tough to pass.
Kevin Harvick – $9,400 – Starting 29th – When you see a guy like Harvick qualify so bad, you instantly think why, or what happened. On a superspeedway like Talladega, some drivers will run race trim during qualifying, and if I had to guess, this is likely the case here. Harvick will be the first person in my cash lineups this weekend. Looking at plate races, I really like to weigh pass differential even though it’s not a fantasy stat anymore. Harvick has the highest pass differential out of all active drivers here, and I expect him to move up fast here on Sunday. Harvick has finished in the top ten in three of the last four Talladega races.
Jamie McMurray – $7,900 – Starting 30th – This is almost exactly the same reason why I like Harvick. McMurray has a very high pass differential at this track, and is in a good spot to score some solid place differential points here. McMurray has never been good at qualifying here, but he’s been really good or really bad here. He does seem to make his way to the front, and he’s always a guy that could pick up 20-40 laps led. I’m playing McMurray for the 10+ place differential point upside here, and I would consider him in play in all formats.
Matt Kenseth – $9,100 – Starting 4th – Kenseth is one of my favorite GPP plays for this weekend. As we see from above, Kenseth really likes to run up front here. He has the second highest average running position, and the second most laps led among active drivers. Kenseth has some terrible luck this season, but he’s too good of a driver for this to continue. Kenseth has the third highest driver rating among active drivers. I think he’s a little risky at this starting spot, but he’s a guy that I could certainly see winning the race.
Kurt Busch – $8,800 – Starting 18th – Busch has started 14th or worse in three straight races here, and he’s averaging 7.3 place differential over those three races. Busch is shaping up to be a very solid cash option this weekend, but I don’t think he has a lot of upside. Kurt has the fourth highest driver rating here, and a very high pass differential here. Everything is pointing for a good chance at a top ten for Kurt in this race.
Value Play
Danica Patrick – $6,400 – Starting 37th – This isn’t the sexiest pick in the world, but I really think Patrick is a very strong cash play this weekend. She has never finished worst than 33th here at Talladega. With her starting spot, there is a very solid place differential floor. She has six career races here, and her average finish is 25.83. If she stays out of trouble, she will be a top 15-point scorer this weekend.
Thanks for reading! Any questions, feel free to post them in the comments section. Also, I did a Daily Fantasy Boot Camp NASCAR 101 Presentation last week. This 35min video goes into the scoring, stats, practice, qualifying, and how to build cash lineups for DFS NASCAR.