NASCAR By the Numbers: Hollywood Casino 400
A lot of interesting things happened at Charlotte, and it has made for a lot of interesting GPP plays this weekend. Kansas is a very interesting race, and only five drivers have won this race more than once since 2001. It’s so important to nail the drivers that are out front, but also to nail the guys starting towards the back that can move up. This article, I hold nothing back for you guys, and giving my thoughts on the guys I like.
Kevin Harvick – Starting 4th – It’s probably a broken record by now, but Harvick is one of the best drivers in NASCAR this season. He has the fourth highest driver rating here, and has led the third-most laps. He has finished second or better in three of the last four races here, and has led at least 50 laps in each race here since joining Stewart-Haas Racing. After struggling here for much of his career, Harvick has really turned it around over the last five years. He hasn’t finished worse than 12th in the last ten races.
Carl Edwards – Starting 2nd – This could easily be Kyle Busch, but I think Edwards will be much lower owned this weekend. Toyota has yet to win a Chase race at Kansas, and Edwards can change that this weekend. Also, I think Kenseth could do the same. Edwards has a lot of success here, but a lot of that success came with Roush Fenway Racing. Edwards has seven top ten finished in his last ten racing here, and I think he has a ton of upside starting second this weekend.
Jimmie Johnson – Starting 21st – Johnson did us a favor this weekend and had a terrible qualifying run on Friday. He has the highest driver rating, the most laps led, and the fastest laps. If he were in the Chase, he would be in every lineup for me this weekend. With this team out of the Chase, he’s racing for pride at this point. Using the chart above, you can see that Johnson’s average running position is much higher than where he qualified. I like Johnson for all formats this weekend.
Brad Keselowski – Starting 1st – Keselowski has a ton of upside this weekend, and I think he’s one of the best GPP plays on the board. He’s really improved here at Kansas, but the results haven’t been on his side. He only has one top ten in the last four races. Keselowski is eighth in points, and doesn’t want to leave it to Talladega next weekend. I expect him to get out front early, and I think he has the car to potentially dominate this race. I worry about Harvick coming up from fourth, and that’s why I’m only playing him in GPPs this weekend.
Value Plays
Jamie McMurray – Starting 28th – McMurray had a rough qualifying session, and now presents as a very solid value play. He had a very tough 2014 here, but bounced back with a 13th place finish in May. I love the place differential potential for him this weekend, and he comes in with an average finished of 19.8. McMurray has finished 16th or better in nine straight races this season, and comes in with an average finish of 14.5 this season.
Casey Mears – Starting 38th – Mears should be a lock in your cash lineups this weekend, and presents a ton of value here. He’s going to a backup car for Sunday, but it should be just as good as his other car. He hit the wall in qualifying, and has a ton of upside starting so far back. Mears started 24th and finished 19th here in May, and has an average finished of 23rd. A lot of place differential points to be had here, and he comes in under 6k on DraftKings this weekend.
Thanks for reading, you can find out who I like in cash games in my Daily Fantasy Pitstop video.