NASCAR By The Numbers: Homestead
It’s been a lot of fun providing NASCAR content for you guys this season, and I’m pumped to bring you a new type of article this weekend. I will be providing you analysis after the final practice, and will be trying to give you guys the best chance to win this weekend. Please let us know what you think of the new type of article.
There are a lot of great stories coming into this weekend, and it’s going to be a great race this weekend. Remember the race will be on NBC not NBC Sports at 3 pm on Sunday. Jeff Gordon will be racing in his final race on Sunday, and would love to end his career with a championship. Kevin Harvick is the defending champion, and would love to repeat as the clear favorite. Kyle Busch wrecked in Daytona and fought back from injury to make it into the final four. Last but certainly not least, Martin Truex Jr. is a single car team, and his long time girlfriend is battling cancer.
Kevin Harvick – Starting 13th – I mentioned above that Harvick is a favorite to win the race. He won this race last season to win the championship, and there’s a really good chance that he’s able to do it again this weekend. He qualified towards the back after being the fastest car in Round 1, and said afterward that he was tight in both runs in Round 2. This should be worked out in the next two practices, and he’s in a solid spot for place differential points. He has seven straight top ten finishes here, and he has the fourth-highest driver rating among active drivers. He’s expensive this weekend, but he has over 100 fantasy points in three of his last eight races.
Denny Hamlin – Starting 1st – Denny Hamlin sat in the back of the media center waiting for Gordon to finish his interview. When he got up there he said, “I thought about it before, but I didn’t think about like how awesome it would be to win his final race.”. Hamlin has won this race two out of the last six times, and has an average finish of 10.8 here. As you can see from above, he runs a lot of laps in the top, and he has a good quality pass percentage. He has a lot of upside starting on the pole.
Jeff Gordon – Starting 5th – Gordon almost became an insane value play during qualifying, but dug deep and was able to advance out of the first round. Looking at the driver rating over the last three races here, nobody has been better than Jeff Gordon. He led 161 laps at this track last season, and has finished in the top 10 in 13 of 16 races here. He’s the only driver in the field to race every race here at Homestead, and the experience here should really benefit him. This is a special weekend for this race team, and I’m expecting them to throw everything they have at it.
Carl Edwards – Starting 7th – Looking at the chart above, Edwards has been very good throughout his career at Homestead. That career was with Roush Fenway Racing, and this will be his first time coming to Homestead with Joe Gibbs and a Toyota. Looking at the success from Hamlin, I’m expecting a good race for Edwards this weekend. He was in race trim in first practice, and he was the fastest car on the track. With the highest driver rating among active drivers, and the highest percentage of laps led, Edwards is a great option this weekend.
Value Play
David Ragan – Starting 38th – Ragan made two runs in the first round of qualifying, and he struggled to generate a good run. This sets him up as a very good value play this weekend. He has eight career races here, and has never finished worst than 38th. He has an average finish of 27th, and this sets up for a very good place differential play. I’m not saying he’s a must play this weekend, but I think he’s an excellent cash game option in this spot.
Practice Notes and Thoughts
Kyle Larson was fast in Practice 1 on Friday, and backed that up with the fastest lap in Practice 2. He is setting up for a very solid play at his price point. In final practice, Larson was the second fastest on a 15-lap run.
Carl Edwards was in my write-up above, and he really backed up what I was thinking for him. He was very fast in both practices on Saturday, and he’s in a great spot for a top-five finish.
Tony Stewart has been a very frustrating driver this season, but he is starting way back in the field on Sunday. He was in the top 30 in both practices on Saturday, and is in a solid spot for place differential points. He was 21st in the final practice over a 10-lap run.
Kyle Busch was the ninth fastest in second practice on Saturday, but he was doing that at the bottom of the track. The top of the track is where a lot of people run for fastest laps, and it’s solid that he was this fast on the bottom. He was seventh fastest on a five-lap run, but fourth fastest in a ten-lap run.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a guy I’m looking at this weekend. He was the fastest driver over a 15-lap run, and could really benefit from a race that stays green for a long time.
Something to note, tires and speeds are falling off after four to five laps.
AJ Allmendinger hit the wall hard in second practice, and didn’t take the track in final practice. The team said they won’t go to a backup, and will work on it through the night to get it ready. I won’t be taking him outside of a long shot tournament play.
Joey Logano vs. Denny Hamlin is going to be something a lot of people think about. You want to nail the driver that leads a lot of laps, and these guys are starting on the front row. I was really high on Hamlin going into final practice, but his speeds have me really concerned. Logano was the fastest car on five-lap runs in final practice, and he was the third fastest on a ten-lap run. I’m going to be splitting these guys now, but still using Hamlin in cash because of the price break.
Martin Truex Jr. is last on my list, but certainly not the least. Here’s the clear underdog this weekend, but he’s very capable of pulling out a win. He was very frustrated in the first practice on Saturday, and his times really showed it. Final practice he was seventh over a ten-lap run, and said the car was getting better finally. He’s a tournament option for me this weekend.
Let us know what you think of the new addition to the article. Is it something you’d like to see more of next season? Let us know below.